TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – October 3, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 25 points or 0.42% downside to 1938 and 0.86% upside to 1963.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 1.91 from 1.90
- VIX closed at 16.16 1 day percent change of -3.29%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 8:30am: Trade Balance, Aug., est. -$40.8b (prior -$40.5b)
- 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, Sept., est. 215k (pr 142K)
- Unemployment Rate, Sept., est. 6.1% (prior 6.1%)
- Avg Weekly Hours All Employees, Sept., est. 34.5 (prior 34.5)
- 9:45am: Markit U.S. Services PMI, Sept. final, est. 58.5 (pr 58.5)
- 10am: ISM Non-Mfg Composite, Sept., est. 58.5 (pr 59.6)
GOVERNMENT:
- Senate, House out of session
- 9am: U.S. Chamber of Commerce holds annual Supreme Court Pre-Term briefing focusing on business cases
- U.S. chief negotiator Dan Mullaney for Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, EU’s chief negotiator Ignacio Garcia Bercero, hold media briefing on 7th round of talks
- U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Alaska’s Fish Debate; Gun Control Ad Wars
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Jobs-Day Guide: U.S. Payrolls, Participation, Wages and Hours
- JPMorgan Password Said to Lead Hackers to 76m Households
- Salix Pharmaceuticals, Cosmo Agree to End Merger Agreement
- Salix Said in Sale Talks With Actavis as Allergan Deal Fades
- BP Seeks Revised Negligence Judgment or New Trial Over Spill
- RadioShack Said to Reach Refinancing Deal With Standard General
- Fed Lawyer Says AIG Got Billions Without 2008 Bailout Paperwork
- American Cameraman for NBC News Diagnosed With Ebola in Liberia
- Apple Encryption Will Slow Not Stop Snooping by Cops, Spies
- Tobacco CEOs Urge FDA to Move More Quickly With E-Cig Standards
- Disney Extends Iger’s Term, Keeping Staggs-Rasulo Race Alive
- UBS Drops on Report of Potential $6.2b Fine in France
- Iliad Said to Prepare Offer for Bigger Stake in T-Mobile
- U.K. Services Growth Cools in Sign Recovery Is Losing Momentum
- Eurozone Aug. Retail Sales Up 1.2% M/m; Est. Up 0.1% M/m
- Hong Kong Protesters Besiege Government Building Before Talks
- Trump Entertainment Judge Set to Rule on Dropping Union Pension
- Goldman Losing Faith in $100 Brent While WTI Discount Seen Wider
- Cameron Says U.K. Won’t Send Combat Troops Back to Afghanistan
- American Airlines Asks U.S. for Tokyo Flight Slot Held by Delta
- Takeda Accused of Putting Actos Profit Ahead of Patient Safety
- Goldman Considering Setting Up New Infrastructure Fund: Reuters
- Facebook Explores Plan to Connect Users With Ailments: Reuters
- IMF, G-20, Fed Minutes, BOE, Brazil, Swaps: Wk Ahead Oct. 4-11
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Brent Crude on Brink of Bear Market Amid Swelling Global Supply
- Gold Drops Close to Erasing This Year’s Gains on Rising Rates
- Diamond Hunters Giving Up on Gems Too Hard to Find: Commodities
- Port Hedland Iron Ore Shipments to China Decline From Record
- Nickel Advances Before U.S. Payroll Data as Copper Also Gains
- West Texas Intermediate Crude Seen Falling in Analyst Survey
- Soybean Meal Poised to Rise 11% After Testing ‘Key Support’
- Palm Rebounds From Biggest Drop Since August on Demand Outlook
- Ebola Serious Threat to West African Miners, Deutsche Bank Says
- Zambia Said to Mull Replacing Mine Tax With Higher Royalties
- Americas Dominate New Copper Supply as Africa, Asia Trail
- Rail Jams Snarl Canada Grain Sales Even as Crop Shrinks: Freight
- Orphaned Russian Oil Heads to U.S. West on Asia Overflow: Energy
- Nickel Leads Metals Higher Before U.S. Payroll Data: LME Preview
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team