Have We Seen Peak in Truck Sales?

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The trucking industry, a vital artery in the U.S. economic body that hauls over 70% of the nation's freight value, often gives us a peek into the economy's health. Historically, we've seen truck sales roll over and then sharply descend as a prelude to recessions, as illustrated by the declines starting in 1989, 1999, 2006, and 2019 — each a harbinger of economic contractions.

Not every top in truck sales forecasts an economic winter; take the peaks of 1984, 1995, and 2015, which were mere false alarms, followed by robust growth. The proverbial soft landing!

Post-pandemic dynamics skewed demand for goods, as services lay dormant. The aftershocks of this shift resonate through recessive demand in manufacturing, housing, and consumer goods sectors that initially thrived on post-COVID spendthrift ways. Despite this, heavyweight truck sales have shown resilience, with November sales posting a solid 44,990 units — impressive, yet shy of the 2019 peak.

Heavyweight truck sales aren't the Babe Ruth of recession indicators, but they're certainly a bellwether worth watching. For now, the wheels keep turning, but the dip from the highs of 2019 keeps us vigilant, we have potentially seen a high in truck sales.

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