Welcome back! You can enjoy today's The Macro Show with Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale and Director of Sales Daryl Jones HERE and access the associated slides (once they become available) HERE.
hedgeye's top 3 things
Below are the top three things from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough’s Macro Notebook this morning:
1) PROFIT RECESSION - GS “beating” well-sandbagged expectations this morning, with earnings tracking down -17.8% YoY. Financials on the whole are tracking down -1.4% already and this is well before the cycle-peak comparative base effects in Q3. The US earnings recession is just getting started. Credit spreads are too tight w/ respect to our view.
2) CHINA BOTTOMING - Last week we saw the first real evidence of moving past the bottom in the Chinese economy in the form of the MAR credit data. We’ve also seen nascent signs of stabilization in Taiwanese, Japanese, and European manufacturing and export data, which is incrementally confirming our view that the Chinese economy bottomed in Q1.
3) EUROPEAN STABILIZATION - Huge pop in European Financials and, in relative terms, the Euro last week on more signs of European stabilization. Short the EUR remains one of the more consensus trades in global macro and we think investors are likely to get caught on the wrong side of the eventual unwinding of this trade as we progress throughout 2019E.
The Macro Show Schedule
Below is the lineup for this week, if you are unable to tune-in live and have a question for the team you can submit it HERE.
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Bearish Insight
Shorting Pests | A Real Vision Interview With Hedgeye's Jay Van Sciver
Our Industrials analyst Jay Van Sciver made his Real Vision debut on “Trade Ideas” last week.
In this clip, Van Sciver highlights one particular short idea: Rollins (ROL), the pest control company. He analyzes the bear case, notes the deteriorating fundamentals and discusses how to take advantage of the opportunity in this interview with Jake Merl.
CLICK HERE to watch.
