If you’re not a visual-phile, the summary is this:
- Housing Surprise Index = All-time low
- Existing Home Sales = -10% Y/Y = worst since 2011 (2011 was when we comped the housing tax credit related pull forward in demand)
- Housing Relative Performance = ↑
- January Mortgage Purchase Applications = ↑ (on a short lag to falling rates)
... In essence, it’s not more complicated than that … and the procession of dynamics above is why you’ve seen housing outperform over the last 1-2 months in the face of some of the worst fundamental data of the cycle.