• Global ‘Black Hole’ Risk Rising: A Discussion With Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Former Fed advisor Danielle DiMartino Booth will discuss key economic developments and the outlook for Fed rate cuts with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more about the Early Look.

If you’re not a visual-phile, the summary is this:

  1. Housing Surprise Index = All-time low
  2. Existing Home Sales = -10% Y/Y = worst since 2011 (2011 was when we comped the housing tax credit related pull forward in demand)
  3. Housing Relative Performance = ↑
  4. January Mortgage Purchase Applications = ↑ (on a short lag to falling rates)

... In essence, it’s not more complicated than that … and the procession of dynamics above is why you’ve seen housing outperform over the last 1-2 months in the face of some of the worst fundamental data of the cycle. 

CHART OF THE DAY: Are You Long Housing Yet? - CoD1 Surprise

CHART OF THE DAY: Are You Long Housing Yet? - early look