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Takeaway: The previously disclosed gross adds and churn rates were incorrect due to an error in our model, which we have fixed below.

KEY POINTS

  1. 3Q18 = Decent Print: On the positive, Gross adds growth slightly accelerated (correction) on an easier comp, and we estimate that SPOT saw healthy improvement in its quarterly churn rate (down ~3 percentage points y/y).  SPOT also produced positive EBITDA for the first time on improving gross margins, which is likely due to lower subscription commissions as SPOT actively attempts to steer users away from in-app signups.  SPOT cautioned not to expect positive EBITDA moving forward since it plans to invest further into growth, but that doesn't matter all that much considering that its been cash flow positive over the LTM.  The negative was that the majority SPOT's sequential revenue growth came from improving Fx.  
  2. Tempering Expectations: SPOT's 4Q revenue guidance came in light at the mid-point and mgmt reverted it sub guidance back to its original estimate for the year.  As we mentioned during our Internet Risks call (deck & replay below), we were concerned with the recent ramp in sub estimates following 2Q18 results.  Mgmt also took note, suggesting that it didn't want to be in a situation were it exceeded its own 4Q18 expectations but missed the Street.  So naturally the question now is whether consensus will lower the bar enough for 2019 considering that they were previously expecting limited if any moderation in SPOT's revenue growth rate through 4Q19; something that we doubt this mgmt team would be willing to guide to.  We remain long, but evaluating the position.  


 

SPOT DECKs & REPLAYs

  • INTERNET | Dodging Landmines (MTCH, SPOT, YELP, TWTR, SNAP) | 10/18/18CLICK HERE 
  • SPOT | Bull vs. Bear | 3/28/2018 | CLICK HERE

 

*CORRECTION* Ticker Bullets | SPOT | 3Q18 Takeaways - SPOT   Gross Adds 3Q18 correct
*CORRECTION* Ticker Bullets | SPOT | 3Q18 Takeaways - SPOT   Churn 3Q18 correct
*CORRECTION* Ticker Bullets | SPOT | 3Q18 Takeaways - SPOT   FXN Revenue 3Q18

Let us know if you have any questions or would like to discuss in more detail.
 

Hesham Shaaban, CFA
Managing Director


@HedgeyeInternet