• Global ‘Black Hole’ Risk Rising: A Discussion With Danielle DiMartino Booth

    Former Fed advisor Danielle DiMartino Booth will discuss key economic developments and the outlook for Fed rate cuts with Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

Editor's Note: Below is an excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. 

So there are some big things to think about as you weigh whether you’re going to have another Selling Opportunity in US Growth stocks today. Fundamentally speaking, why did USD signal #overbought and Gold #oversold yesterday? 

One component of the answer has to be Europe. You don’t have to be a math major to get that when the European economic data sucks and the Euro signals immediate-term #oversold, that you should book some gains in one of my favorite longs of Red October 2018. 

Admittedly, the word ‘sucks’ isn’t a ROC (rate of change) word; sucking or slowing at an accelerating rate looks more like this: 

  1. German Retail Sales down -2.6% year-over-year in SEP
  2. French Consumer Spending down -1.5% year-over-year in SEP
  3. Spanish Retail Sales down -3.1% year-over-year in SEP 

Remember our #EuropeSlowing call from this time last year? I do. I made that call when Tommy Lee was slapping a $100,000 price target on Bitcoin. Not to pick on the guy because he’s a really nice guy, but if you’re in his camp this morning (I just googled him): 

A) “Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is ‘pleasantly surprised’ by the stability of Bitcoin” (its down -56% YTD)… and
B) “Wall Street strategist Tom Lee says rapid market sell-off is over” –CNBC 

I seriously have no idea what Lee or any other econ or strategist was telling you when we made the Quad 4 call in China, Europe, and EM back in January… or when we made the Quad 4 call in the USA in September. 

CHART OF THE DAY: Red October In European Data - 11.01.18 EL Chart

CHART OF THE DAY: Red October In European Data - early look