TAX BREAK: Senate Republicans are taking advantage of the Thanksgiving recess to work out some of the provisions in their Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to ensure it’s ready for a floor vote when they return. Senate leadership is staying on top of the concerns of every Senator especially those on the fence such as Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Susan Collins (R-ME) who have been publicly airing their concerns with the bill. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell plans to change the bill as little as possible, though he may need to - with one Senator already a firm no until he does. McConnell and Speaker Paul Ryan are lobbying Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) to get on board after Johnson came out against the bill on the grounds that it doesn't help small businesses and leaves behind pass-through entities.
HOLIDAY SPENDING: Meanwhile, House staff has shifted gears to address the appropriations fight with the CR expiring on December 8th. With all of the focus and energy over the past months aimed at tax reform, they have reached little consensus on government spending bills. However, having a budget to set top-line numbers should help them avoid another surprise September deal like the one President Trump made with Congressional leaders of both (ahem) parties. Speaker Ryan has expressed that they will need an extension of a week or so, but it could go into the new year - with the tax battle about to reach a fevered pitch and the debt ceiling now expected to cap in January it would make sense to push it back until after tax reform, delaying the inevitable clash with Democrats on DACA and limiting their fiscal showdowns to one per year.
BRICK WALL FUNDING FALL: In the wake of the death of a border patrol agent in Texas, President Trump is reiterating his desire for a wall along the Mexican border to secure America. In doing so, he promised that the next agenda item for his Administration after tax reform will be infrastructure and he has a chance to forge a bipartisan approach given the need and the appeal of the issue. While Republicans historically vote against spending increases without offsets, they are more likely to agree to an infrastructure spending deal if it comes with a big win for their base and Democrats are more likely to agree to border security if it comes with a deal on DACA.
PIPE DOWN: Nebraska has granted the final permission for the Keystone extension to begin transporting crude from Canada to the U.S. The heavy crude from Canada will be used in Gulf Coast refineries designed to handle that type of oil. After last week’s spill in the original Keystone pipeline - negative press kicked up around the decision to promote fossil fuels in the area. However, the Nebraskan regulators could not use that spill to influence their decision over the extension.
CALL TODAY: RUINED PUNCH BOWL? ACA REPEAL MAKES INEVITABLE APPEARANCE IN TAX REFORM: Join our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans today, November 21 at 10:00 AM ET for the latest on implications of changes to the ACA on tax reform and vice versa. Get the event details here.
CALL TODAY: SUPREME COURT TACKLES SPORTS BETTING (MGM, CZR, WYNN, LVS): Join our Senior Telecom Analyst Paul Glenchur along with Hedgeye’s Gaming and Lodging team today, November 21 at 2:30 PM ET for a discussion on the Supreme Court determining whether federal law can prevent states from repealing their own restrictions on sports wagering. Get the event details here.
JUSTICE DEPARTMENT LAWSUIT TO BLOCK AT&T/TIME WARNER (T, TWX): Our Senior Telecom Analyst Paul Glenchur writes it's a bold DOJ move, but the legal and political context is not favorable for the government. TWX weakness may be an opportunity. Read the full piece here.
CALL REPLAY: U.S. SOLAR TARIFFS ON CHINA WITH FORMER CEO OF SOLAR ENERGY ASSOCIATION: Senior Energy Policy Analyst Joe McMonigle hosted a conference call on Friday: Trump wanted trade tariffs and the ITC just recommended them on Chinese solar panels days after Trump’s trip to China and Asia. Get the replay details here.
CALL REPLAY: UPDATE FROM THE FORMER U.S./UN COMMANDER IN KOREA: On the heels of President Trump’s trip to Asia, our Senior Defense Analyst Emo Gardner hosted a call with the four-star former commander of U.S./UN forces in Korea to provide an up-to-date assessment. Get the replay here.
EVENT: HEDGEYE AT OPEC – JOIN US FOR A PANEL AND RECEPTION IN VIENNA ON OPEC’S NEXT STEPS: Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle is hosting a panel in Vienna on November 29 on OPEC’s next steps, geopolitical risks and oil markets. Get the details here.