A TAXING FALL: At the same time President Trump said, “bipartisan tax reform is a good thing,” Republican leadership outlined their plan to move it forward - on party lines. The Big Six will release their outline for tax reform on September 25th and plan on Congress passing a FY18 budget by mid-October. These will set the parameters for tax writers on the Hill who still need guidance from the FY18 budget to begin writing and reconciliation language to pass their bills. Their goals are pretty clear - tax cuts for individuals, tax cuts for businesses, and tax code reform. House Speaker Paul Ryan insisted these were aimed at job creation and the middle class, but Trump took it a step further and said the wealthy will stay where they are or even go higher.
BUT NOT BEFORE BLACK: In order for tax reform to happen in 2017 as leadership wants, Congress needs to pass a FY18 budget in the next few months and so far that has been difficult. House Budget Chair Diane Black (R-TN) has been wrangling all factions of her party, but still doesn’t have the votes. She suggested putting it on the floor anyway, daring Republicans not to vote for their only vehicle to tax reform, but don’t forget that Senators tried this just a few months ago on health care - and it didn’t end well for them.
DEMOCRAT DREAM TEAM: President Trump is defending his decision to have dinner with the Democratic leadership, alone. The president met with them to discuss their fall agenda, mainly the Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals (DACA) legislation. Trump was always critical of DACA for its overreach of presidential authority, but he has been sympathetic toward the Dreamers it would affect. He is encouraging Congress to pass action addressing Dreamers, but is ignoring his fellow Republican’s promise to do so. He has gone straight to the Senate and House Minority Leaders Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), whose alliance he currently seems to trust. Trump thinks DACA should be simple and bipartisan and even told a group of moderates - not to attach it to his border wall.
HEALTH’S HORSE RACE : The president and vice president are applauding Senators Bill Cassidy (R-LA), Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and Dean Heller (R-NV) for not giving up on health care. But without the lobbying efforts of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, their odds of getting 50 votes are against them. Health care is still a major issue for Americans as evidenced by the last election and their desire for reform has not dwindled. This dark horse has about six working days to cross the finish line. Meanwhile, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) says he already has more support on his Medicare for All Bill, still - not close to 50.
EQUIFAX'S FATE: A breach as large in scope as Equifax’s, is sure to send shudders down the spines of legislators for whom cybersecurity has become a top issue. Leaders on the Hill have been working to figure out what happened in order to put in place measures so that it doesn’t happen again. The House Energy and Commerce Committee has called the CEO of Equifax to testify before a subcommittee focused on digital commerce and consumer protection on October 3rd.
KEEP ON TRUCKIN': Washington’s lag in regulations with new technologies makes it hard to predict the economic impacts of policies. This week we are getting a glimpse of the difficulties Congress has adapting old laws to new tricks. Mostly, they are fighting about including trucks in automated car legislation. President Trump wants to develop self-driving cars much faster than former President Obama did, as part of his vision for America leading the world in technology and infrastructure, but this would have consequences for some of his strongest supporters. Truck driving is one of the most common jobs in America and their political reach is further than you may think.
Most Common Job by State in 2014
CALL INVITE | DISH NETWORK (DISH): Our Senior Telecom and Cable Analyst Paul Glenchur is hosting a call discussing the regulatory outlook and agenda for Dish Network with its Senior VP and Deputy Counsel, Jeff Blum, September 20th at 11am. Get the dial-in here.
HCA, HOLX, MD, AMN, ATHN | HEALTH CARE JOB OPENINGS +5.6% IN JULY: Our Senior Health Policy Analyst Emily Evans writes we remain short a number of names in the Hedgeye Health Care Position Monitor related to our #ACATaper thesis. Read the full piece here.
EVENT: DEPUTY ENERGY SECRETARY & FORMER OPEC PRESIDENT HEADLINE OCT 11 HEDGEYE ENERGY CONF (NYC) Our Senior Energy Analyst Joe McMonigle is hosting a Hedgeye energy conference in New York City. Topics include regulating pipelines, grid reliability and energy infrastructure in the Trump Administration - as well as an OPEC meeting preview. Get the event details here.
