Hedgeye Financials analyst Josh Steiner listed the many reasons why we think the "risk-reward" of the U.S. stock market is tilted decidedly to the downside.
Here's a brief recap from a recent edition of The Macro Show,
- You’ve got small business loans and credit quality deteriorating, an enormous part of the economy.
- You’ve got the rest of the lending complex beginning to tighten.
- You’ve got the Fed in a position in which it's not able to do much about it.
- You’ve got a broad swath of economic indicators getting worse.
- You’ve got market valuation up on a rope.
- You’ve got the duration of the labor cycle very extended.
- And then there's this curious case of significant decline in maternity rates taking hold across America.
As Steiner summarized:
"To me, it all paints a very fascinating picture of risk versus reward in the marketplace right now, where I think it's pretty plain that risk significantly exceeds what’s being priced into stocks and it's not that uncommon an occurence. In October 2007, it should have been pretty plain to many people that things were going to go from bad to worse when the market was at an all-time high. And so the fact that the market hit a very high level is not a defensible argument for why we shouldn’t be concerned about all of this deterioration. It's actually exactly the opposite."