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Daily Market Data Dump: Friday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

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Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - equity markets 7 29

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - sector performance 7 29

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - volume 7 29

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - rates and spreads 7 29

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - currencies 7 29

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Friday - commodities 7 29


It’s a good thing all the chart chasers perfectly timed this...

Client Talking Points

YEN

Kuroda came down from the Japanese heavens and reminded us that he can part the seas – “negative rates have not reached their limit” – but the day trade of short Yen may have! Another +1.6% Yen ramp in his face; #ouchy day for the #BeliefSystem.

China

Remember we used to talk about global #GrowthSlowing (Ex-USA for one more GDP print this morning)… China, Europe, Oil? Let’s just ex-that-out in Q3 ok? Chinese stocks down another -0.5% overnight (Hang Seng -1.3%) w/ CNOOC leading the way this time (Shanghai Comp remains in #crash mode, -41% from the 2015 Global Equity #Bubble Top).

OIL

Double #ouchy here - don’t look now by this morning’s drop towards the $40-handle for WTI puts it down -15% in the last month alone; was it the Dollar? Supply? Demand? A bird or a plane? with Durable Goods and Capex careening to the downside, the bullish narrative on “Global Cyclical Demand has bottomed” is very hard to follow.

Asset Allocation

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
7/28/16 66% 2% 6% 8% 8% 10%
7/29/16 66% 4% 6% 6% 6% 12%

Asset Allocation as a % of Max Preferred Exposure

CASH US EQUITIES INTL EQUITIES COMMODITIES FIXED INCOME INTL CURRENCIES
7/28/16 66% 6% 18% 24% 24% 30%
7/29/16 66% 12% 18% 18% 18% 36%
The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other assets classes is 33%.

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
GLD

Gold (GLD) = Protection from global currency devaluation and inflation/down USD – You can travel anywhere on earth and get a quote in local currency.

TLT

Long Bonds (TLT) = #GrowthSlowing, yield curve compression.

TIP

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) = Combination of the above exposures.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

BREAKING: #Fed leaves rates unchanged in the 0.25% to 0.5% range. pic.twitter.com/UwNCUNNF8b

@Hedgeye

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Tower, this is Ghost Rider requesting a flyby."

-Top Gun

STAT OF THE DAY

Bobby Bonilla hit 287 homeruns over his 16 year MLB career.


Oil Bulls Are Getting Pummeled as Long-Term Bears Get Paid

Takeaway: Oil bulls are getting pummeled while the long-term bears continue to get paid.

Double #Ouchy here - don’t look now but this morning’s drop towards the $40-handle for WTI puts it down -15% in the last month alone; was it the Dollar? Supply? Demand? A bird or a plane? With Durable Goods and Capex careening to the downside, the bullish narrative on “Global Cyclical Demand has bottomed” is very hard to follow. 

 

Oil Bulls Are Getting Pummeled as Long-Term Bears Get Paid - Oil cartoon 04.07.2016 

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote for subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


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July 29, 2016

Want more from Daily Trading Ranges? CLICK HERE to submit up to 4 tickers you'd like to see on the list. 

 

  • Bullish Trend
  • Bearish Trend
  • Neutral

INDEX BUY TRADE SELL TRADE PREV. CLOSE
UST10Y
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield
1.63 1.48 1.52
SPX
S&P 500
2,138 2,179 2,170
RUT
Russell 2000
1,189 1,223 1,217
COMPQ
NASDAQ Composite
5,020 5,168 5,154
NIKK
Nikkei 225 Index
16,107 16,860 16,476
DAX
German DAX Composite
9,948 10,378 10,274
VIX
Volatility Index
11.70 15.69 12.72
USD
U.S. Dollar Index
96.25 97.93 96.72
EURUSD
Euro
1.09 1.11 1.10
USDJPY
Japanese Yen
102.99 107.12 105.28
WTIC
Light Crude Oil Spot Price
40.35 43.81 41.14
NATGAS
Natural Gas Spot Price
2.59 2.89 2.87
GOLD
Gold Spot Price
1,315 1,356 1,332
COPPER
Copper Spot Price
2.16 2.28 2.20
AAPL
Apple Inc.
99.91 104.70 104.34
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc.
730 761 752
NFLX
Netflix Inc.
81.84 93.98 91.65
JPM
J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.
62.01 64.54 64.10
FB
Facebook Inc.
118.49 126.16 125.00
GOOGL
Alphabet Inc
739 785 765


Hedgeye's Daily Trading Ranges are twenty immediate-term (TRADE) buy and sell levels, along with our intermediate-term (TREND) view.  Click HERE for a video from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough on how to use these risk ranges.


JT TAYLOR: Capital Brief

JT TAYLOR:  Capital Brief - JT   Potomac banner 2

 

"If your actions inspire others to dream more, learn more, do more and become more, you are a leader."

                       -   John Quincy Adams

 

CLINTON’S CONVENTION CONTRAST: Hillary Clinton took center stage last night and made a case to her fellow Democrats and the country why they should coalesce around and support her this November. In a three-day build up to last night, speakers cast Clinton as experienced, stable and committed in stark contrast to Donald Trump - but all lot of this boils down to whether voters can connect to her on a personal level. Chelsea Clinton’s introduction provided the perfect touch portraying her mother as a role model and grandmother to all and amplifying her father’s message earlier in the week. Clinton’s speech did what Donald Trump’s did not do – she addressed how she’ll provide strong and stable leadership and bring about economic change while at the same time conveying passion and dedication to the causes of millions of Americans. Clinton’s main objective was to neutralize her lingering negatives and appeal to Americans as an experienced hand and unifier by showcasing her career and persistent drive through decades of public service.  We see a requisite bump in the polls after a solid four days in Philly, but will she continue to excite her constituencies and sustain the momentum?

 

BIG-TICKET BENCH: Clinton has taken the last few days to show off how deep her bench runs – and if you didn’t know before, it’s very deep. From millionaires to minorities, disabled groups to veterans, current and former presidents - Team Clinton displayed that they have the strongest backing of who and what America really is – a melting pot. In contrast, Trump’s lineup was no where near as sturdy, and his Republican brethren know it. He’s just now beginning to make amends with the legions of people and groups he’s offended by backtracking on past statements - including retracting his John McCain war hero comments. Though he’s getting better in the let’s-be-friends department, he’s just not established as Clinton who has spent decades cultivating deep relationships and connections. We expect each campaign’s surrogates to play an increasingly important role in the coming months (no vacation for you Bernie Sanders), but we don’t see Trump’s loyalist crowd growing any time soon.

 

DEPENDING ON INDEPENDENTS: Uncommitted voters disenchanted with the two-party system continue to hold out on and with both conventions now complete, we wonder if either party has created enough enthusiasm for the ever-growing number of Independents to swing their way. Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-Independent Michael Bloomberg made the case against Trump for pro-business Independents who are wary of Clinton, but only time will tell if his endorsement is strong enough to shift voters her way. Bernie Sanders’s supporters hold the golden ticket, but with the curtain now closed on the convention, it comes down to the strength and passion of the party’s message and grassroots efforts.

 

RUSSIAN ROULETTE: Trump rattled off some of the more myopic statements on Russia since former AK Governor Sarah Palin reminded us that Russia can be seen from her house...Criticism from all corners is building for his outrageous remarks encouraging Russia to continue their hacking efforts to find Clinton’s missing emails. Whether it was sarcasm or not, it crystallized where Trump’s head is. Rather than focusing on party themes and policy differences, like the ones he will see in debates, he sticks to the personal attacks that helped him thrive in the primaries. We heard promises that the Republican convention would be a turning point for Trump, after which he would buckle down and get serious, but instead he continues to fall back on ridicule, innuendo and attention-getting headlines. While most of the country finally realizes that this is a change election - his rhetoric will only get him so far until he digs deeper on substance and focuses on solutions mattering most to the American people.

 

DISSECTING THE PARTY PLATFORMS: Both the Republican Convention and the Democratic Convention have now concluded. We put together a comparison of each party’s platform to help you better understand the differences and similarities in the policy agendas for the coming year. You can read the comparison here.

 


A Special Super Show with Keith McCullough Replay | July 29, 2016

In light of big economic news and recent market developments, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough is hosting a special Super Show Friday morning exclusively for subscribers. Keith will review the investing implications of the Q2 GDP report, discuss the "Top-3" things in his macro notebook, and update his current signals in Real-Time Alerts.

 

As always, he will answer your questions live.

 

CLICK HERE to access the associated slides.

 

 

An audio-only replay of today's show is available here.


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