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Capital Brief | 3 Takeaways: Passing The Torch, Obama To Clinton

Takeaway: Passing The Torch; Mark of Kaine; Climbing Capital Hill;

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye Potomac Chief Political Strategist JT Taylor's Capital Brief sent to institutional clients each morning. For more information on how you can access our institutional research please email sales@hedgeye.com.

 

Capital Brief | 3 Takeaways: Passing The Torch, Obama To Clinton - JT   Potomac under 1 mb

 

“Things don't turn up in this world until somebody turns them up.”

-James A. Garfield

PASSING THE TORCH

Day three was immensely important for Democrats as it signified a passing of the party torch from President Obama to Hillary Clinton. In his speech, Obama emphasized Clinton’s vast experience as a leader in public office, touting her ability to adapt to any situation, while imploring voters to defend his legacy by electing her as president. VP Joe Biden vouched for Clinton’s character, recalling weekly breakfasts with Clinton, where he learned her true passions, intellect, and toughness.

 

Both hit on Donald Trump for his lack of substance and reluctance – even inability – to expand his limited knowledge of policy and international affairs, despite the information being at his fingertips. But the most vital speaker of the night was veep pick Tim Kaine, who introduced himself to an unfamiliar nation and highlighted the reasons why he was the right choice to round out the ticket.

MARK OF KAINE

In a year when the veep choice matters so much, two questions remain – can Kaine make enough of a positive impact and is he liberal enough to woo leftist voters? Clinton took the safe route by tapping Kaine as her running mate, but it’s yet to be seen if he’s too safe of a pick. His style is anything but electric and he really doesn’t ignite progressives or other party factions.

 

The Wall Street crowd is pleased with him because he is not Warren, and his pros ultimately outweigh his cons since VA is a highly contested swing state, his moderate views can corral undecided voters, and he speaks fluent Spanish. However, the pick is still a direct slap in the face to progressives as they feel they are not adequately represented.

CLIMBING CAPITOL HILL

Veep pick Mike Pence, a former congressman with close ties to the Hill, has helped Trump and his campaign step up its courtship of wary Republicans - and the efforts appear to be fruitful. The charm offensive comes after months of Trump picking on other Republicans and is aimed at rewarding surrogates who make the case for him around the Hill.

 

Pence is working hard to reel in Republicans who’ve kept an arm’s length – even extending an olive branch to those once against Trump. If this is any indication of how Pence will perform in the future, Trump has made the right decision in choosing him. It’s imperative he grows his army as he will need all the backup he can get in the coming months.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

REPLAY | About Everything with Neil Howe: Earnings Smaller Than They Appear

REPLAY | About Everything with Neil Howe: Earnings Smaller Than They Appear - Slide1

In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses the growing use of "pro forma" accounting and explains the broader implications for investors.


PREMIUM INSIGHT

[UNLOCKED] Keith's Daily Trading Ranges

[UNLOCKED] Keith's Daily Trading Ranges - Bull and bear extra cartoon

We've made some new enhancements to Daily Trading Ranges - our proprietary buy and sell levels on major markets, commodities and currencies sent to subscribers weekday mornings by CEO Keith McCullough. Click here to view a brief video of McCullough explaining how to use it most effectively.


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.61%

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday

Takeaway: A closer look at global macro market developments.

Editor's Note: Below are complimentary charts highlighting global equity market developments, S&P 500 sector performance, volume on U.S. stock exchanges, rates and bond spreads, key currency crosses, and commodities. It's on the house. For more information on how Hedgeye can help you better understand the markets and economy (and stay ahead of consensus) check out our array of investing products

 

CLICK TO ENLARGE

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - equity markets 7 28

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - sector performance 7 28

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - volume 7 28

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - currencies 7 28

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - rates and spreads 7 28

 

Daily Market Data Dump: Thursday - commodities 7 28


Friday's Red Hot GDP Report & What It Means For Long Bonds

Takeaway: I’d be a seller of long-term bonds into this GDP report (hoping to buy the 10-yr back again around 1.65-1.70%).

Worldwide long-term yields lower in the last 48 hours and with the UST 10yr at 1.50%, I’d be a seller of long-term bonds into this GDP report (hoping to buy the 10-yr back again around 1.65-1.70%); plenty of people will get sucked into this GDP print if it’s as big as we think it’s going to look (our estimates are +4.8% q/q SAAR – that’s +2.3% y/y – then we’re straight back down to 0.8% for Q3).

 

Friday's Red Hot GDP Report & What It Means For Long Bonds - 10yr treasury 7 28

 

Editor's Note: The snippet above is from a note Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote for subscribers this morning. Click here to learn more.


CHART OF THE DAY | Housing: Behind The Treasury's Shell Company Crackdown

Editor's Note: Below is a brief excerpt and chart from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake. Click here to learn more.

 

"... A couple weeks ago, I highlighted a Treasury Department initiative aimed at tracking high end real estate transactions in Miami and Manhattan in an attempt to crackdown on money laundering in the ultra high-end real estate markets.  

 

With foreign demand having an outsized impact on prices in select markets and nearly 50% of foreign buyers purchasing properties over $5mn doing so through shell company LLCs, someone thought illegal activity was getting a little too frothy."

 

CHART OF THE DAY | Housing: Behind The Treasury's Shell Company Crackdown - 7 28 16 CoD2


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