For better or worse, it's Fed Day. Here's what we're watching in macro markets via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning.
Key takeaways on the Dollar, oil, etc
"It’s a good thing we’re not ex’ing out Dovish Dollar (Fed) expectations and its impact on “reflating” the SP500; but today is event day for Yellen and my main macro question is what happens if she can’t burn the USD to a lower-low (vs. the last yr of USD holding 93-94 on the US Dollar Index?) Stay tuned… should be riveting."
"Oil is up big again, +1.9% and pushing the Pain Trade to almost its max on FOMC event day – for WTI my TAIL risk level of resistance is just north of $46 – for something like Oil & Gas Stocks (XOP) it’s in the $36-37 range; if you were a bear on Energy (I don’t have this on, yet), on whatever Yellen says you’d probably buy/cover USD and sell Energy (for now)"
So where does the dovish Fed, down dollar trade go?
Straight to Vladimir Putin's pocket...
Meanwhile, Yellen's down dollar trade has crushed Japanese equities:
Now, in other countries (far, far away) where faith in central planners has undoubtedly waned, reality rules.
So Greece (and ECB-led Europe broadly)...
And China.
So we'd ask...
In Central Planners, do you believe?
