Do You Believe? What We're Watching On Fed Day

Do You Believe? What We're Watching On Fed Day - central bank cartoon 04.22.2016

 

For better or worse, it's Fed Day. Here's what we're watching in macro markets via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning.

 

Key takeaways on the Dollar, oil, etc

 

"It’s a good thing we’re not ex’ing out Dovish Dollar (Fed) expectations and its impact on “reflating” the SP500; but today is event day for Yellen and my main macro question is what happens if she can’t burn the USD to a lower-low (vs. the last yr of USD holding 93-94 on the US Dollar Index?) Stay tuned… should be riveting."

 

 

"Oil is up big again, +1.9% and pushing the Pain Trade to almost its max on FOMC event day – for WTI my TAIL risk level of resistance is just north of $46 – for something like Oil & Gas Stocks (XOP) it’s in the $36-37 range; if you were a bear on Energy (I don’t have this on, yet), on whatever Yellen says you’d probably buy/cover USD and sell Energy (for now)"

 

 

So where does the dovish Fed, down dollar trade go?

 

Straight to Vladimir Putin's pocket...

 

 

Meanwhile, Yellen's down dollar trade has crushed Japanese equities:

 

 

Now, in other countries (far, far away) where faith in central planners has undoubtedly waned, reality rules.

 

So Greece (and ECB-led Europe broadly)...

 

 

And China.

 

 

So we'd ask...

 

In Central Planners, do you believe?


Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more

A 'Toxic Cocktail' Brewing for A Best Idea Short

The first quarter earnings pre-announcement today is not the end of the story for Mednax (MD). Rising labor costs and slowing volume is a toxic cocktail...

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy? Here's What You Need to Know

If you're heavily-invested in Energy stocks it's been a heck of a year. Energy is the worst-performing sector in the S&P 500 year-to-date and value investors are now hunting for bargains in the oil patch. Before you buy, here's what you need to know.

read more

McCullough: ‘My 1-Minute Summary of My Institutional Meetings in NYC Yesterday’

What are even some of the smartest investors in the world missing right now?

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Political Portfolio Positioning

Leave your politics out of your portfolio.

read more

Jim Rickards Answers the Hedgeye 21

Bestselling author Jim Rickards says if he could be any animal he’d be a T-Rex. He also loves bonds and hates equities. Check out all of his answers to the Hedgeye 21.

read more

Amazon's New 'Big Idea': Ignore It At Your Own Peril

"We all see another ‘big idea’ out of Amazon (or the press making one up) just about every day," writes Retail Sector Head Brian McGough. "But whatever you do, DON’T ignore this one!"

read more