Do You Believe? What We're Watching On Fed Day

04/27/16 09:53AM EDT

Do You Believe? What We're Watching On Fed Day - central bank cartoon 04.22.2016

For better or worse, it's Fed Day. Here's what we're watching in macro markets via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning.

Key takeaways on the Dollar, oil, etc

 

"It’s a good thing we’re not ex’ing out Dovish Dollar (Fed) expectations and its impact on “reflating” the SP500; but today is event day for Yellen and my main macro question is what happens if she can’t burn the USD to a lower-low (vs. the last yr of USD holding 93-94 on the US Dollar Index?) Stay tuned… should be riveting."

https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725266256992059392

 

"Oil is up big again, +1.9% and pushing the Pain Trade to almost its max on FOMC event day – for WTI my TAIL risk level of resistance is just north of $46 – for something like Oil & Gas Stocks (XOP) it’s in the $36-37 range; if you were a bear on Energy (I don’t have this on, yet), on whatever Yellen says you’d probably buy/cover USD and sell Energy (for now)"

https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725264433073803264

So where does the dovish Fed, down dollar trade go?

Straight to Vladimir Putin's pocket...

https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725263244546461697

Meanwhile, Yellen's down dollar trade has crushed Japanese equities:

https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725260141185097729

Now, in other countries (far, far away) where faith in central planners has undoubtedly waned, reality rules.

So Greece (and ECB-led Europe broadly)...

https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725262555376136192

And China.

https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725261081648730112

So we'd ask...

In Central Planners, do you believe?

© 2024 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.