For better or worse, it's Fed Day. Here's what we're watching in macro markets via Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough in a note sent to subscribers earlier this morning.
Key takeaways on the Dollar, oil, etc
"It’s a good thing we’re not ex’ing out Dovish Dollar (Fed) expectations and its impact on “reflating” the SP500; but today is event day for Yellen and my main macro question is what happens if she can’t burn the USD to a lower-low (vs. the last yr of USD holding 93-94 on the US Dollar Index?) Stay tuned… should be riveting."
https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725266256992059392
"Oil is up big again, +1.9% and pushing the Pain Trade to almost its max on FOMC event day – for WTI my TAIL risk level of resistance is just north of $46 – for something like Oil & Gas Stocks (XOP) it’s in the $36-37 range; if you were a bear on Energy (I don’t have this on, yet), on whatever Yellen says you’d probably buy/cover USD and sell Energy (for now)"
https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725264433073803264
So where does the dovish Fed, down dollar trade go?
Straight to Vladimir Putin's pocket...
https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725263244546461697
Meanwhile, Yellen's down dollar trade has crushed Japanese equities:
https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725260141185097729
Now, in other countries (far, far away) where faith in central planners has undoubtedly waned, reality rules.
So Greece (and ECB-led Europe broadly)...
https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725262555376136192
And China.
https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/725261081648730112
So we'd ask...
In Central Planners, do you believe?