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In a recent note to subscribers, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough weighed in on whether the U.S. has entered an earnings recession and if that presages a full-blown economic recession.

"It’s early in [earnings season], but don’t get roped in by the bull-market storytelling. As we outlined in our Q4 macro deck, earnings recessions have preceded economic recessions in the last 3 cycles."   

 

Take a look at this chart.

McCullough: Are We Entering An Earnings Recession? (And If So...) - 10 19 2015 eps inflecting

It doesn't paint a pretty picture.

In addition, earlier this week on The Macro Show, Hedgeye macro analyst Darius Dale added that the odds of a recession — sometime over the next 12-months — are steadily rising.

"[The probability] is very high, certainly much higher than 50%, and much higher than the average investor believes.”

That's our view. So heads up. 

In related news...

McCullough: Are We Entering An Earnings Recession? (And If So...) - 10 20 2015 vader