In a recent note to subscribers, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough weighed in on whether the U.S. has entered an earnings recession and if that presages a full-blown economic recession.
"It’s early in [earnings season], but don’t get roped in by the bull-market storytelling. As we outlined in our Q4 macro deck, earnings recessions have preceded economic recessions in the last 3 cycles."
Take a look at this chart.
It doesn't paint a pretty picture.
In addition, earlier this week on The Macro Show, Hedgeye macro analyst Darius Dale added that the odds of a recession — sometime over the next 12-months — are steadily rising.
"[The probability] is very high, certainly much higher than 50%, and much higher than the average investor believes.”
That's our view. So heads up.
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