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The charts below illustrate some of the important commodity trends for the restaurant industry.

Notable Trends:

  • Coffee prices ticked up +1.9% over the past week, but are down -38% on a year-over-year basis and remain a tailwind for SBUX, DNKN, GMCR, KKD, THI and other coffee retailers.  We expect this tailwind to continue for the remainder of the year.
  • Chicken wings are up +0.3% over the past week, as football season enters its nascent stages and MCD is in the process of rolling out Mighty Wings nationwide.
  • Dairy costs are up over the past week.  A continuation of this trend could create some margin pressure for CAKE, TXRH and others with expsoure to dairy costs.
  • Beef prices are down over the past week and have been trending down YTD, offering CMG, WEN, JACK and others reason to be optimistic on COGS over the intermediate-term.
  • Corn and wheat prices continue to provide retailers, restaurants and consumers with lower food costs than a year ago.
  • Gasoline prices fell -0.9% over the past week, but are up +7.5% YTD. We will continue to monitor this trend, as any sustained increase or decrease in gas prices could have a signicant impact on the direction of discretionary spending.

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - table

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - Correlationtable

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - gas long term

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - gas

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - crb long term

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - crb

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - corn

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - wheat

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - soybeans3

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - rice

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - cattle

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - breast

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - wings

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - coffee

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - cheese block

COMMODITY CHARTBOOK - milk

 

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director