The charts below illustrate some of the important commodity trends for the restaurant industry.
Notable Trends:
- Coffee prices ticked up +1.9% over the past week, but are down -38% on a year-over-year basis and remain a tailwind for SBUX, DNKN, GMCR, KKD, THI and other coffee retailers. We expect this tailwind to continue for the remainder of the year.
- Chicken wings are up +0.3% over the past week, as football season enters its nascent stages and MCD is in the process of rolling out Mighty Wings nationwide.
- Dairy costs are up over the past week. A continuation of this trend could create some margin pressure for CAKE, TXRH and others with expsoure to dairy costs.
- Beef prices are down over the past week and have been trending down YTD, offering CMG, WEN, JACK and others reason to be optimistic on COGS over the intermediate-term.
- Corn and wheat prices continue to provide retailers, restaurants and consumers with lower food costs than a year ago.
- Gasoline prices fell -0.9% over the past week, but are up +7.5% YTD. We will continue to monitor this trend, as any sustained increase or decrease in gas prices could have a signicant impact on the direction of discretionary spending.
Howard Penney
Managing Director