The details behind the May numbers
As you know, May GGR grew 13.5% YoY to HK$28.7 billion. We estimate that including direct play, VIP hold was 2.91% versus a normalized 3.00%. Had VIP hold been normal this May, YoY growth in GGR would’ve grown 16.5%. With normal VIP hold in both periods, GGR growth would have been 13.9% (similar to what was reported). We expect June growth to be similar to May but July could spike close to 20%.
YOY TABLE OBSERVATIONS
Total table revenue grew 14% YoY. Mass market growth continued its streak of around 30% growth rate, growing 32% in May. VIP volume and win rose 8%, in-line with April's growth.
LVS took the top spot for table revenue growth at 43% for the 4th consecutive month. The company had the highest mass revenue growth at 66%. Its RC volume grew 23%. We estimate that LVS held normal at 2.76% in May compared to 2.53% last May, assuming direct play of 15% vs. 23% last year. Venetian and FS played lucky while SCC and Sands Macau held low.
- Sands eked out a 1% gain YoY
- Mass grew 32%, its best monthly YoY growth in a long-time
- VIP fell 27%
- Sands held very low but also had an easier comp. We estimate that Sands held at 1.8% compared to 2.3% in the same period last year. We assume 11% direct play in May vs 9% in May 2012.
- Junket RC fell 8%, its 3rd consecutive month of declines
- Venetian grew 63% YoY, the property's best growth since January 2012
- Mass increased 55%
- VIP revenue skyrocketed 70% due to high hold
- Junket VIP RC fell 5%, its 15th decline in the past 16 months
- Assuming 27% direct play, hold was 3.5% compared to 2.0% in May 2012, assuming 28% direct play
- Four Seasons jumped 42% YoY
- Mass revenues increased 24%
- VIP grew 45%
- Junket VIP RC jumped 32%. May hold (assuming 11% direct play) was 3.1% vs 2.7% in May 2012 when direct play was 16%.
- Sands Cotai Central grew 46% YoY
- Mass jumped 167% to $87MM, a new monthly high
- VIP revenues grew 8% to $110MM
- Junket RC volume of $4.4BN, up 72% YoY
- If we assume that direct play was 11%, hold would have been 2.2%
MPEL had a solid month, lobbing in the 2nd best table growth of 31%. Mass grew 63% while VIP growth was 22%. We estimate that MPEL held at 2.70% vs 2.78% last May. Estimated direct play was 10% vs. 10.5% last year.
- Altira revenues grew 33%, the property's best growth rate in 20 months. Mass rose 28% while VIP saw a 33% YoY increase.
- VIP RC grew 25%
- We estimate that hold was 2.8%, compared to 2.6% in the prior year
- CoD table revenues grew 30% YoY
- Mass increased 68%, continuing its impressive streak of strong YoY double-digit gains since the property opened
- VIP win grew 16% and RC grew 28%
- Assuming a 13.5% direct play level, hold was 2.7% in May compared to 2.9% last year (assuming 14.7% direct play)
Wynn table revenues grew 22%
- VIP revenues grew 25%, while VIP RC increased 1%
- Wynn held at 3.1% vs 2.6% last May
- Mass revenues increased 9%
MGM had a strong performance in May, growing 25% in table revenues.
- We estimate that hold was 3.1% adjusted for direct play of 7% vs hold of 3.2% last year assuming 9% direct play
- VIP RC and Mass both grew 29%
Tables revenues grew 8%. VIP RC had the worst market performance, falling 6%. On the bright spot, Mass growth was very strong at 44%. Hold was 3.2% in May 2013 vs. 3.0% last year.
- StarWorld table revenues rose 20%
- Mass soared 44%
- VIP gained 17%.
- Junket RC rose 6%, breaking 11 straight months of declines
- Hold was 3.1% vs 2.8% last year
- Galaxy Macau's table revenues was flat
- Mass had another great month at 44% growth
- VIP saw a second consecutive decline at -12% and RC also fell 12%.
- Hold was 3.2%, similar to May last year
SJM performed relatively poorly in May, partially due to hard comps and lower hold. Total table revenue fell 12%, with the worst mass market share growth (none) and VIP revenue decline of 16%. RC volume dropped 2%. SJM held at 2.8% vs 3.2% last year.
SEQUENTIAL MARKET SHARE - April to May
Market share lost 90bps to 20.9%. May’s share is in-line with LVS’s 6-month average of 21.1% and better than its 2012 average share of 19.0%.
- Sands' share fell 20bps to 2.8%. For comparison purposes, 2012 share was 3.9% and 6M trailing average share was 3.4%.
- Mass share jumped 130bps to 5.9% in May
- VIP rev share fell 80bps to 1.5%, a new all-time low
- RC share was 2.2%, flat MoM and in-line with the all-time low for the property set in March
- Venetian’s share was flat at 8.5%. 2012 share was 7.9% and 6 month trailing share was 8.3%.
- Mass share decreased 1.5% to 14.4%
- VIP share improved 50bps to 6.0%
- Junket RC share gained 40bps to 3.9%
- FS gained lost 20bps to 3.7%. This compares to 2012 share of 3.7% and 6M trailing average share of 3.2%.
- VIP was flat 4.7%
- Mass share fell 20bps to 1.5%
- Junket RC was flat at 4.1%
- Sands Cotai Central's table market share fell 50bps to 5.5%, which compares to the 6M trailing average share of 5.8%.
- Mass share improved 40bps to 8.2%.
- VIP share fell 0.9% to 4.4%
- Junket RC share was flat at 5.5%
MPEL lost 2.3% in share in May to 14%. Its 6 month trailing share is 14.0% and their 2012 share of 13.5%.
- Altira’s share fell 20bps to 3.8%, above its 6M and 12M trailing share of 3.9%
- Mass share was flat at 1.3%
- VIP lost 40bps to 4.8%
- VIP RC share fell 40bps to 5.2%
- CoD’s share lost 2.1% to 10.2%, but still above the property’s 2012 and 6M trailing share of 9.4% and 10.0%, respectively.
- Mass market share grew 1.5% to 12.5%
- VIP share tumbled 3.6% to 9.2%
- Junket share ticked down 20bps to 9.3%
Wynn was the largest share gainer in May, gaining 260bps to 12%. 2012 average share was 11.9% and their 6M trailing average share has been 11.0%.
- Mass share was fell 50bps to 7.3%
- VIP share gained 4.1% to 13.9%
- Junket RC share increased 80bps to 12.5%
MGM’s market share rose 2.5% to 11.4%, above its 6M and 2012 average of 9.6% and 9.9%, respectively
- Mass share gained 40bps to 7.8%
- VIP share improved 3.4% to 12.6%
- Junket RC gained 1.0% to 11.8%
Galaxy's share gained 1.2% to 18.8%, below its 2012 average share of 19.0% but above its 6-month average of 17.9%
- Galaxy Macau share improved 0.5% to 10.8%
- Mass share gained 1.1% to 10.8%, an all-time property high
- VIP share improved 30bps to 10.8%
- RC share lost 10bps to 9.8%
- Starworld share gained 2% to 7.8%
- Mass share was lower by 40bps at 3.4%
- VIP share jumped 3% to 9.6%
- RC share gained 70bps to 9.5%
SJM was the largest share donor, losing 3% MoM to 22.9%, which is below their 2012 average of 26.7% and their 6M trailing average of 26.4%, and a new all-time low
- Mass market share declined 70bps to 24.7%, an all-time company low
- VIP share fell 4.3% to 22.8%
- Junket RC share fell 2.2% to 25.6%
Slot revenue grew only 5% YoY to $152MM in May
- Galaxy had the best YoY growth at 43% to $20MM
- LVS grew of 9% YoY to $43MM
- MPEL gained 5% YoY to $25MM
- MGM fell 1% to $25MM
- WYNN dropped 8% to $21MM
- SJM had the worst YoY slot performance, losing 9% to $18MM