The details behind the May numbers



As you know, May GGR grew 13.5% YoY to HK$28.7 billion.  We estimate that including direct play, VIP hold was 2.91% versus a normalized 3.00%.  Had VIP hold been normal this May, YoY growth in GGR would’ve grown 16.5%.  With normal VIP hold in both periods, GGR growth would have been 13.9% (similar to what was reported).  We expect June growth to be similar to May but July could spike close to 20%.





Total table revenue grew 14% YoY.  Mass market growth continued its streak of around 30% growth rate, growing 32% in May.  VIP volume and win rose 8%, in-line with April's growth. 



LVS took the top spot for table revenue growth at 43% for the 4th consecutive month.  The company had the highest mass revenue growth at 66%.  Its RC volume grew 23%.  We estimate that LVS held normal at 2.76% in May compared to 2.53% last May, assuming direct play of 15% vs. 23% last year.  Venetian and FS played lucky while SCC and Sands Macau held low.

  • Sands eked out a 1% gain YoY
    • Mass grew 32%, its best monthly YoY growth in a long-time
    • VIP fell 27% 
    • Sands held very low but also had an easier comp.  We estimate that Sands held at 1.8% compared to 2.3% in the same period last year.  We assume 11% direct play in May vs 9% in May 2012.
    • Junket RC fell 8%, its 3rd consecutive month of declines
  • Venetian grew 63% YoY, the property's best growth since January 2012
    • Mass increased 55%
    • VIP revenue skyrocketed 70% due to high hold
    • Junket VIP RC fell 5%, its 15th decline in the past 16 months
    • Assuming 27% direct play, hold was 3.5% compared to 2.0% in May 2012, assuming 28% direct play 
  • Four Seasons jumped 42% YoY
    • Mass revenues increased 24%
    • VIP grew 45%
    • Junket VIP RC jumped 32%. May hold (assuming 11% direct play) was 3.1% vs 2.7% in May 2012 when direct play was 16%.
  • Sands Cotai Central grew 46% YoY
    • Mass jumped 167% to $87MM, a new monthly high 
    • VIP revenues grew 8% to $110MM
    • Junket RC volume of $4.4BN, up 72% YoY 
    • If we assume that direct play was 11%, hold would have been 2.2% 


MPEL had a solid month, lobbing in the 2nd best table growth of 31%.  Mass grew 63% while VIP growth was 22%. We estimate that MPEL held at 2.70% vs 2.78% last May.  Estimated direct play was 10% vs. 10.5% last year.

  • Altira revenues grew 33%, the property's best growth rate in 20 months.  Mass rose 28% while VIP saw a 33% YoY increase.
    • VIP RC grew 25%
    • We estimate that hold was 2.8%, compared to 2.6% in the prior year
  • CoD table revenues grew 30% YoY
    • Mass increased 68%, continuing its impressive streak of strong YoY double-digit gains since the property opened
    • VIP win grew 16% and RC grew 28%
    • Assuming a 13.5% direct play level, hold was 2.7% in May compared to 2.9% last year (assuming 14.7% direct play)


Wynn table revenues grew 22%

  • VIP revenues grew 25%, while VIP RC increased 1% 
  • Wynn held at 3.1% vs 2.6% last May
  • Mass revenues increased 9%


MGM had a strong performance in May, growing 25% in table revenues. 

  • We estimate that hold was 3.1% adjusted for direct play of 7% vs hold of 3.2% last year assuming 9% direct play
  • VIP RC and Mass both grew 29% 


Tables revenues grew 8%. VIP RC had the worst market performance, falling 6%.  On the bright spot, Mass growth was very strong at 44%.  Hold was 3.2% in May 2013 vs. 3.0% last year.

  • StarWorld table revenues rose 20%
    • Mass soared 44%
    • VIP gained 17%.  
    • Junket RC rose 6%, breaking 11 straight months of declines 
    • Hold was 3.1% vs 2.8% last year
  • Galaxy Macau's table revenues was flat
    • Mass had another great month at 44% growth
    • VIP saw a second consecutive decline at -12% and RC also fell 12%.  
    • Hold was 3.2%, similar to May last year


SJM performed relatively poorly in May, partially due to hard comps and lower hold.  Total table revenue fell 12%, with the worst mass market share growth (none) and VIP revenue decline of 16%. RC volume dropped 2%.  SJM held at 2.8% vs 3.2% last year.






Market share lost 90bps to 20.9%.  May’s share is in-line with LVS’s 6-month average of 21.1% and better than its 2012 average share of 19.0%. 

  • Sands' share fell 20bps to 2.8%.  For comparison purposes, 2012 share was 3.9% and 6M trailing average share was 3.4%.
    • Mass share jumped 130bps to 5.9% in May
    • VIP rev share fell 80bps to 1.5%, a new all-time low
    • RC share was 2.2%, flat MoM and in-line with the all-time low for the property set in March
  • Venetian’s share was flat at 8.5%.  2012 share was 7.9% and 6 month trailing share was 8.3%.
    • Mass share decreased 1.5% to 14.4%
    • VIP share improved 50bps to 6.0%
    • Junket RC share gained 40bps to 3.9%
  • FS gained lost 20bps to 3.7%.  This compares to 2012 share of 3.7% and 6M trailing average share of 3.2%.
    • VIP was flat 4.7%
    • Mass share fell 20bps to 1.5%
    • Junket RC was flat at 4.1%
  • Sands Cotai Central's table market share fell 50bps to 5.5%, which compares to the 6M trailing average share of 5.8%.
    • Mass share improved 40bps to 8.2%.
    • VIP share fell 0.9% to 4.4%
    • Junket RC share was flat at 5.5%


MPEL lost 2.3% in share in May to 14%. Its 6 month trailing share is 14.0% and their 2012 share of 13.5%.  

  • Altira’s share fell 20bps to 3.8%, above its 6M and 12M trailing share of 3.9%
    • Mass share was flat at 1.3%
    • VIP lost 40bps to 4.8%
    • VIP RC share fell 40bps to 5.2%
  • CoD’s share lost 2.1% to 10.2%, but still above the property’s 2012 and 6M trailing share of 9.4% and 10.0%, respectively.
    • Mass market share grew 1.5% to 12.5%
    • VIP share tumbled 3.6% to 9.2%
    • Junket share ticked down 20bps to 9.3%


Wynn was the largest share gainer in May, gaining 260bps to 12%.  2012 average share was 11.9% and their 6M trailing average share has been 11.0%.

  • Mass share was fell 50bps to 7.3%
  • VIP share gained 4.1% to 13.9%
  • Junket RC share increased 80bps to 12.5%


MGM’s market share rose 2.5% to 11.4%, above its 6M and 2012 average of 9.6% and 9.9%, respectively

  • Mass share gained 40bps to 7.8%
  • VIP share improved 3.4% to 12.6%
  • Junket RC gained 1.0% to 11.8%


Galaxy's share gained 1.2% to 18.8%, below its 2012 average share of 19.0% but above its 6-month average of 17.9%

  • Galaxy Macau share improved 0.5% to 10.8%
    • Mass share gained 1.1% to 10.8%, an all-time property high
    • VIP share improved 30bps to 10.8%
    • RC share lost 10bps to 9.8%
  • Starworld share gained 2% to 7.8%
    • Mass share was lower by 40bps at 3.4%
    • VIP share jumped 3% to 9.6%
    • RC share gained 70bps to 9.5%


SJM was the largest share donor, losing 3% MoM to 22.9%, which is below their 2012 average of 26.7% and their 6M trailing average of 26.4%, and a new all-time low

  • Mass market share declined 70bps to 24.7%, an all-time company low
  • VIP share fell 4.3% to 22.8%
  • Junket RC share fell 2.2% to 25.6%


Slot Revenue


Slot revenue grew only 5% YoY to $152MM in May

  • Galaxy had the best YoY growth at 43% to $20MM
  • LVS grew of 9% YoY to $43MM
  • MPEL gained 5% YoY to $25MM
  • MGM fell 1% to $25MM
  • WYNN dropped 8% to $21MM
  • SJM had the worst YoY slot performance, losing 9% to $18MM



TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 6, 2013

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 23 points or 0.49% downside to 1601 and 0.94% upside to 1624.                           










  • YIELD CURVE: 1.80 from 1.80
  • VIX closed at 17.5 1 day percent change of 7.56%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, May (prior -6%)
  • 7:30am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, June (prior 50.2)
  • 7:45am: ECB seen holding benchmark interest rates at 0.50%
  • 8am: Fed’s Plosser speaks on economy in Boston
  • 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi hold news conference on rate decision
  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, June 1, est. 345k (prior 354k)
  • 8:30am: Cont. Claims, May 25, est 2.974m (prior 2.986m)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 2 (prior -29.7)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11:00am: Fed to buy $3b-$3.75b notes in 2019-2020 sector
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 1Q (prior $1.174t)


    • 9am: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission holds briefing on China and the Middle East, focusing on energy security, trade, investment flows
    • 10am: Consumer, telecom industry representatives testify before House Judiciary panel on Courts, IP and the Internet on H.R. 1123, a bill which would allow cell phone unlocking
    • 10am: Senate Foreign Relations Cmte meets on labor conditions in Bangladesh
    • 10am: Senate Finance Cmte hears from USTR nominee Michael Froman at confirmation hearing
    • 10:45am: Attorney General Eric Holder testifies at Senate Appropriations panel hearing
    • 3pm: President Obama discusses jobs in speech at Charlotte middle school


  • May Retail Sales likely rose on pent-up seasonal demand
  • NYSE Euronext glitch halts trading from Paris to Amsterdam
  • PepsiCo in talks to buy SodaStream for $2b, Calcalist says
  • Cohen is said to vow keeping SAC open as billions pulled
  • Fed grants foreign banks leeway in Dodd-Frank swap pushout rule
  • BOJ said to split on measure to quell bond market volatility
  • P&G reorganizes into 4 industry groups as Lafley takes over
  • AT&T discussing joint bid for Hulu with Chernin: AllThingsD
  • Simon & Schuster CEO says she didn’t discuss Apple e-book talks
  • NSA said to cull millions of Verizon records, Guardian says
  • Newsweek CEO to leave after Diller puts magazine up for sale
  • JPMorgan loses challenge to California cost-recovery program
  • EU considering handing Libor oversight to ESMA from the U.K.
  • IMF says Greece may need faster debt relief, cites own mistakes
  • GM replaces H.J. Heinz (HNZ) in S&P 500 post-close
  • Netflix replaces Perrigo in Nasdaq 100 pre-open


    • JM Smucker (SJM) 7am, $1.16
    • Ciena (CIEN) 7am, $(0.01)
    • Conn’s (CONN) 7am, $0.56
    • Ferrellgas (FGP) 7:30am, $0.46
    • UTi Worldwide (UTIW) 8am, $0.03
    • ANN (ANN) 8am, $0.40
    • Canadian Western Bank (CWB CN) 8am, C$0.57 - Preview
    • Cooper Cos. (COO) 4pm, $1.38
    • Quiksilver (ZQK) 4pm, $0.04
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) 4pm, $2.74
    • Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) 4pm, $0.44


  • Copper Drops From Two-Week High on Clouded Prospects for Demand
  • Goldman Sees Bull Run Over as Returns Trail Stocks: Commodities
  • WTI Crude Advances for Second Day as U.S. Stockpiles Decline
  • Food Prices Little Changed in May as Dairy Falls and Corn Climbs
  • Coffee Heads for First Second-Quarter Drop Since 2009 on Vietnam
  • Chalco Shutters Aluminum Output for First Time Since 2009
  • Gold Erases Decline in London to Rebound Above $1,400 an Ounce
  • Scientists Unswayed by Monsanto’s Conclusions on Rogue Wheat
  • Harper EU Trade Pact Hinges on Access for Canadian Meat Exports
  • Rebar Falls as Equity Drop Spurs Concern China May Be Slowing
  • Abe’s Power Plan Lifts Renewables at Utilities Expense: Energy
  • Natural-Gas Price Break May Aid Motor-Fuel Use: Chart of the Day
  • Iron Ore Trading in May Said by The Steel Index at Record High
  • Commodities Daybook: Goldman Sees Bull Run Over as Returns Trail
  • Bigger Wheat and Corn Crops Seen Boosting 2013-14 Stocks by AMIS






















The Hedgeye Macro Team












CONFERENCE CALL: What's next for Euorpe?

CONFERENCE CALL: What's next for Euorpe? - whereseuropeDial 06.11.13


We will be hosting a conference call Tuesday, June 11th at 10:00am EDT titled "Where Does Europe Go From Here?"




Highlight the best investment opportunities in Europe and assess the overall economy of the region.  




  • Contextualizing the fundamental and structural headwinds in the region
  • The key actions of the ECB and its impact across markets
  • European bifurcation will remain with clear winners and losers
  • Updates from the periphery and other risks investors should be aware of
  • Our investment outlook across asset classes over the intermediate term


  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 187759#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (Slides will download one hour prior to the start of the call)


If you would like more details about this call please email .



Trade of the Day: XLF

Takeaway: We bought the Financials ETF (XLF) at 3:39PM at $19.41.

It’s tough for me to buy anything with SPY under 1624, but I can and will. Both the signal and the fundamentals (employment and housing) say buy the Financials ETF here, so I will. It’s oversold within a bullish intermediate-term TREND.


Trade of the Day: XLF - XLF

Top-7 Tweets to Keith Today

Takeaway: Here are some of today's Twitter highlights. As always, thanks for the follows.

@KeithMcCullough even on days when you are wrong your honesty is refreshing. #timestamp

Noah @262sd 4:09 PM


@KeithMcCullough Rough day Boss, but shit happens. Thanks for the words of wisdom and advice, I don't feel like I'm playing this game alone

@JeffersonHumber 4:03 PM


@KeithMcCullough At least you're out here and accountable to your clients. #honest

@traderblast 4:04 PM


@KeithMcCullough It's one day in a long season. Thanks for letting us "into your head", as u work thru the process

@kenpeyser 4:07 PM


@KeithMcCullough You've been wrong for 3 HOURS NOW, when is the public stoning outside your office!!!

@CramersShirt 1:08 PM


@KeithMcCullough I've noticed the people that spend their days being critical of other people's calls, generally have fewer than 100 followers.

@GriswoldCapital  1:06 PM


@KeithMcCullough @DougKass i gotta be fair, Keith has won this battle, Doug has been bearish this whole 250 pt S&P run up, Keith made $$

@Frankfn11 9:49 AM


Top-7 Tweets to Keith Today - twitter

Keith's Top-5 Tweets Today

Takeaway: A quick look at some of Keith's top tweets today.

Thanks for the follows - unlike many, we do have bad days, and today was one of them

@KeithMcCullough 4:04 PM


Every decade people think growth can't come back - then growth rips; its behavioral

@KeithMcCullough 3:48 PM


Shorting Japanese Government Bonds may be the most obvious waterfall trade of the yr

@KeithMcCullough 3:28 PM


Being wrong for half a day is a problem - being wrong for half a yr is a nightmare

@KeithMcCullough 3:27 PM


Only Madoff and people with no Timestamps never lose

@KeithMcCullough 1:23 PM


Keith's Top-5 Tweets Today - tweet

Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.