The details behind the May numbers



As you know, May GGR grew 13.5% YoY to HK$28.7 billion.  We estimate that including direct play, VIP hold was 2.91% versus a normalized 3.00%.  Had VIP hold been normal this May, YoY growth in GGR would’ve grown 16.5%.  With normal VIP hold in both periods, GGR growth would have been 13.9% (similar to what was reported).  We expect June growth to be similar to May but July could spike close to 20%.





Total table revenue grew 14% YoY.  Mass market growth continued its streak of around 30% growth rate, growing 32% in May.  VIP volume and win rose 8%, in-line with April's growth. 



LVS took the top spot for table revenue growth at 43% for the 4th consecutive month.  The company had the highest mass revenue growth at 66%.  Its RC volume grew 23%.  We estimate that LVS held normal at 2.76% in May compared to 2.53% last May, assuming direct play of 15% vs. 23% last year.  Venetian and FS played lucky while SCC and Sands Macau held low.

  • Sands eked out a 1% gain YoY
    • Mass grew 32%, its best monthly YoY growth in a long-time
    • VIP fell 27% 
    • Sands held very low but also had an easier comp.  We estimate that Sands held at 1.8% compared to 2.3% in the same period last year.  We assume 11% direct play in May vs 9% in May 2012.
    • Junket RC fell 8%, its 3rd consecutive month of declines
  • Venetian grew 63% YoY, the property's best growth since January 2012
    • Mass increased 55%
    • VIP revenue skyrocketed 70% due to high hold
    • Junket VIP RC fell 5%, its 15th decline in the past 16 months
    • Assuming 27% direct play, hold was 3.5% compared to 2.0% in May 2012, assuming 28% direct play 
  • Four Seasons jumped 42% YoY
    • Mass revenues increased 24%
    • VIP grew 45%
    • Junket VIP RC jumped 32%. May hold (assuming 11% direct play) was 3.1% vs 2.7% in May 2012 when direct play was 16%.
  • Sands Cotai Central grew 46% YoY
    • Mass jumped 167% to $87MM, a new monthly high 
    • VIP revenues grew 8% to $110MM
    • Junket RC volume of $4.4BN, up 72% YoY 
    • If we assume that direct play was 11%, hold would have been 2.2% 


MPEL had a solid month, lobbing in the 2nd best table growth of 31%.  Mass grew 63% while VIP growth was 22%. We estimate that MPEL held at 2.70% vs 2.78% last May.  Estimated direct play was 10% vs. 10.5% last year.

  • Altira revenues grew 33%, the property's best growth rate in 20 months.  Mass rose 28% while VIP saw a 33% YoY increase.
    • VIP RC grew 25%
    • We estimate that hold was 2.8%, compared to 2.6% in the prior year
  • CoD table revenues grew 30% YoY
    • Mass increased 68%, continuing its impressive streak of strong YoY double-digit gains since the property opened
    • VIP win grew 16% and RC grew 28%
    • Assuming a 13.5% direct play level, hold was 2.7% in May compared to 2.9% last year (assuming 14.7% direct play)


Wynn table revenues grew 22%

  • VIP revenues grew 25%, while VIP RC increased 1% 
  • Wynn held at 3.1% vs 2.6% last May
  • Mass revenues increased 9%


MGM had a strong performance in May, growing 25% in table revenues. 

  • We estimate that hold was 3.1% adjusted for direct play of 7% vs hold of 3.2% last year assuming 9% direct play
  • VIP RC and Mass both grew 29% 


Tables revenues grew 8%. VIP RC had the worst market performance, falling 6%.  On the bright spot, Mass growth was very strong at 44%.  Hold was 3.2% in May 2013 vs. 3.0% last year.

  • StarWorld table revenues rose 20%
    • Mass soared 44%
    • VIP gained 17%.  
    • Junket RC rose 6%, breaking 11 straight months of declines 
    • Hold was 3.1% vs 2.8% last year
  • Galaxy Macau's table revenues was flat
    • Mass had another great month at 44% growth
    • VIP saw a second consecutive decline at -12% and RC also fell 12%.  
    • Hold was 3.2%, similar to May last year


SJM performed relatively poorly in May, partially due to hard comps and lower hold.  Total table revenue fell 12%, with the worst mass market share growth (none) and VIP revenue decline of 16%. RC volume dropped 2%.  SJM held at 2.8% vs 3.2% last year.






Market share lost 90bps to 20.9%.  May’s share is in-line with LVS’s 6-month average of 21.1% and better than its 2012 average share of 19.0%. 

  • Sands' share fell 20bps to 2.8%.  For comparison purposes, 2012 share was 3.9% and 6M trailing average share was 3.4%.
    • Mass share jumped 130bps to 5.9% in May
    • VIP rev share fell 80bps to 1.5%, a new all-time low
    • RC share was 2.2%, flat MoM and in-line with the all-time low for the property set in March
  • Venetian’s share was flat at 8.5%.  2012 share was 7.9% and 6 month trailing share was 8.3%.
    • Mass share decreased 1.5% to 14.4%
    • VIP share improved 50bps to 6.0%
    • Junket RC share gained 40bps to 3.9%
  • FS gained lost 20bps to 3.7%.  This compares to 2012 share of 3.7% and 6M trailing average share of 3.2%.
    • VIP was flat 4.7%
    • Mass share fell 20bps to 1.5%
    • Junket RC was flat at 4.1%
  • Sands Cotai Central's table market share fell 50bps to 5.5%, which compares to the 6M trailing average share of 5.8%.
    • Mass share improved 40bps to 8.2%.
    • VIP share fell 0.9% to 4.4%
    • Junket RC share was flat at 5.5%


MPEL lost 2.3% in share in May to 14%. Its 6 month trailing share is 14.0% and their 2012 share of 13.5%.  

  • Altira’s share fell 20bps to 3.8%, above its 6M and 12M trailing share of 3.9%
    • Mass share was flat at 1.3%
    • VIP lost 40bps to 4.8%
    • VIP RC share fell 40bps to 5.2%
  • CoD’s share lost 2.1% to 10.2%, but still above the property’s 2012 and 6M trailing share of 9.4% and 10.0%, respectively.
    • Mass market share grew 1.5% to 12.5%
    • VIP share tumbled 3.6% to 9.2%
    • Junket share ticked down 20bps to 9.3%


Wynn was the largest share gainer in May, gaining 260bps to 12%.  2012 average share was 11.9% and their 6M trailing average share has been 11.0%.

  • Mass share was fell 50bps to 7.3%
  • VIP share gained 4.1% to 13.9%
  • Junket RC share increased 80bps to 12.5%


MGM’s market share rose 2.5% to 11.4%, above its 6M and 2012 average of 9.6% and 9.9%, respectively

  • Mass share gained 40bps to 7.8%
  • VIP share improved 3.4% to 12.6%
  • Junket RC gained 1.0% to 11.8%


Galaxy's share gained 1.2% to 18.8%, below its 2012 average share of 19.0% but above its 6-month average of 17.9%

  • Galaxy Macau share improved 0.5% to 10.8%
    • Mass share gained 1.1% to 10.8%, an all-time property high
    • VIP share improved 30bps to 10.8%
    • RC share lost 10bps to 9.8%
  • Starworld share gained 2% to 7.8%
    • Mass share was lower by 40bps at 3.4%
    • VIP share jumped 3% to 9.6%
    • RC share gained 70bps to 9.5%


SJM was the largest share donor, losing 3% MoM to 22.9%, which is below their 2012 average of 26.7% and their 6M trailing average of 26.4%, and a new all-time low

  • Mass market share declined 70bps to 24.7%, an all-time company low
  • VIP share fell 4.3% to 22.8%
  • Junket RC share fell 2.2% to 25.6%


Slot Revenue


Slot revenue grew only 5% YoY to $152MM in May

  • Galaxy had the best YoY growth at 43% to $20MM
  • LVS grew of 9% YoY to $43MM
  • MPEL gained 5% YoY to $25MM
  • MGM fell 1% to $25MM
  • WYNN dropped 8% to $21MM
  • SJM had the worst YoY slot performance, losing 9% to $18MM



TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – June 6, 2013

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 23 points or 0.49% downside to 1601 and 0.94% upside to 1624.                           










  • YIELD CURVE: 1.80 from 1.80
  • VIX closed at 17.5 1 day percent change of 7.56%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7:30am: Challenger Job Cuts Y/y, May (prior -6%)
  • 7:30am: RBC Consumer Outlook Index, June (prior 50.2)
  • 7:45am: ECB seen holding benchmark interest rates at 0.50%
  • 8am: Fed’s Plosser speaks on economy in Boston
  • 8:30am: ECB’s Draghi hold news conference on rate decision
  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, June 1, est. 345k (prior 354k)
  • 8:30am: Cont. Claims, May 25, est 2.974m (prior 2.986m)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, June 2 (prior -29.7)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11:00am: Fed to buy $3b-$3.75b notes in 2019-2020 sector
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, 1Q (prior $1.174t)


    • 9am: U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission holds briefing on China and the Middle East, focusing on energy security, trade, investment flows
    • 10am: Consumer, telecom industry representatives testify before House Judiciary panel on Courts, IP and the Internet on H.R. 1123, a bill which would allow cell phone unlocking
    • 10am: Senate Foreign Relations Cmte meets on labor conditions in Bangladesh
    • 10am: Senate Finance Cmte hears from USTR nominee Michael Froman at confirmation hearing
    • 10:45am: Attorney General Eric Holder testifies at Senate Appropriations panel hearing
    • 3pm: President Obama discusses jobs in speech at Charlotte middle school


  • May Retail Sales likely rose on pent-up seasonal demand
  • NYSE Euronext glitch halts trading from Paris to Amsterdam
  • PepsiCo in talks to buy SodaStream for $2b, Calcalist says
  • Cohen is said to vow keeping SAC open as billions pulled
  • Fed grants foreign banks leeway in Dodd-Frank swap pushout rule
  • BOJ said to split on measure to quell bond market volatility
  • P&G reorganizes into 4 industry groups as Lafley takes over
  • AT&T discussing joint bid for Hulu with Chernin: AllThingsD
  • Simon & Schuster CEO says she didn’t discuss Apple e-book talks
  • NSA said to cull millions of Verizon records, Guardian says
  • Newsweek CEO to leave after Diller puts magazine up for sale
  • JPMorgan loses challenge to California cost-recovery program
  • EU considering handing Libor oversight to ESMA from the U.K.
  • IMF says Greece may need faster debt relief, cites own mistakes
  • GM replaces H.J. Heinz (HNZ) in S&P 500 post-close
  • Netflix replaces Perrigo in Nasdaq 100 pre-open


    • JM Smucker (SJM) 7am, $1.16
    • Ciena (CIEN) 7am, $(0.01)
    • Conn’s (CONN) 7am, $0.56
    • Ferrellgas (FGP) 7:30am, $0.46
    • UTi Worldwide (UTIW) 8am, $0.03
    • ANN (ANN) 8am, $0.40
    • Canadian Western Bank (CWB CN) 8am, C$0.57 - Preview
    • Cooper Cos. (COO) 4pm, $1.38
    • Quiksilver (ZQK) 4pm, $0.04
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) 4pm, $2.74
    • Ferrellgas Partners (FGP) 4pm, $0.44


  • Copper Drops From Two-Week High on Clouded Prospects for Demand
  • Goldman Sees Bull Run Over as Returns Trail Stocks: Commodities
  • WTI Crude Advances for Second Day as U.S. Stockpiles Decline
  • Food Prices Little Changed in May as Dairy Falls and Corn Climbs
  • Coffee Heads for First Second-Quarter Drop Since 2009 on Vietnam
  • Chalco Shutters Aluminum Output for First Time Since 2009
  • Gold Erases Decline in London to Rebound Above $1,400 an Ounce
  • Scientists Unswayed by Monsanto’s Conclusions on Rogue Wheat
  • Harper EU Trade Pact Hinges on Access for Canadian Meat Exports
  • Rebar Falls as Equity Drop Spurs Concern China May Be Slowing
  • Abe’s Power Plan Lifts Renewables at Utilities Expense: Energy
  • Natural-Gas Price Break May Aid Motor-Fuel Use: Chart of the Day
  • Iron Ore Trading in May Said by The Steel Index at Record High
  • Commodities Daybook: Goldman Sees Bull Run Over as Returns Trail
  • Bigger Wheat and Corn Crops Seen Boosting 2013-14 Stocks by AMIS






















The Hedgeye Macro Team












CONFERENCE CALL: What's next for Euorpe?

CONFERENCE CALL: What's next for Euorpe? - whereseuropeDial 06.11.13


We will be hosting a conference call Tuesday, June 11th at 10:00am EDT titled "Where Does Europe Go From Here?"




Highlight the best investment opportunities in Europe and assess the overall economy of the region.  




  • Contextualizing the fundamental and structural headwinds in the region
  • The key actions of the ECB and its impact across markets
  • European bifurcation will remain with clear winners and losers
  • Updates from the periphery and other risks investors should be aware of
  • Our investment outlook across asset classes over the intermediate term


  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 187759#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (Slides will download one hour prior to the start of the call)


If you would like more details about this call please email .



Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.64%

Trade of the Day: XLF

Takeaway: We bought the Financials ETF (XLF) at 3:39PM at $19.41.

It’s tough for me to buy anything with SPY under 1624, but I can and will. Both the signal and the fundamentals (employment and housing) say buy the Financials ETF here, so I will. It’s oversold within a bullish intermediate-term TREND.


Trade of the Day: XLF - XLF

Top-7 Tweets to Keith Today

Takeaway: Here are some of today's Twitter highlights. As always, thanks for the follows.

@KeithMcCullough even on days when you are wrong your honesty is refreshing. #timestamp

Noah @262sd 4:09 PM


@KeithMcCullough Rough day Boss, but shit happens. Thanks for the words of wisdom and advice, I don't feel like I'm playing this game alone

@JeffersonHumber 4:03 PM


@KeithMcCullough At least you're out here and accountable to your clients. #honest

@traderblast 4:04 PM


@KeithMcCullough It's one day in a long season. Thanks for letting us "into your head", as u work thru the process

@kenpeyser 4:07 PM


@KeithMcCullough You've been wrong for 3 HOURS NOW, when is the public stoning outside your office!!!

@CramersShirt 1:08 PM


@KeithMcCullough I've noticed the people that spend their days being critical of other people's calls, generally have fewer than 100 followers.

@GriswoldCapital  1:06 PM


@KeithMcCullough @DougKass i gotta be fair, Keith has won this battle, Doug has been bearish this whole 250 pt S&P run up, Keith made $$

@Frankfn11 9:49 AM


Top-7 Tweets to Keith Today - twitter

Keith's Top-5 Tweets Today

Takeaway: A quick look at some of Keith's top tweets today.

Thanks for the follows - unlike many, we do have bad days, and today was one of them

@KeithMcCullough 4:04 PM


Every decade people think growth can't come back - then growth rips; its behavioral

@KeithMcCullough 3:48 PM


Shorting Japanese Government Bonds may be the most obvious waterfall trade of the yr

@KeithMcCullough 3:28 PM


Being wrong for half a day is a problem - being wrong for half a yr is a nightmare

@KeithMcCullough 3:27 PM


Only Madoff and people with no Timestamps never lose

@KeithMcCullough 1:23 PM


Keith's Top-5 Tweets Today - tweet

real-time alerts

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This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.