MAY MACAU REVIEW

The details behind the May numbers

As you know, May GGR grew 13.5% YoY to HK$28.7 billion.  We estimate that including direct play, VIP hold was 2.91% versus a normalized 3.00%.  Had VIP hold been normal this May, YoY growth in GGR would’ve grown 16.5%.  With normal VIP hold in both periods, GGR growth would have been 13.9% (similar to what was reported).  We expect June growth to be similar to May but July could spike close to 20%.

YOY TABLE OBSERVATIONS

Total table revenue grew 14% YoY.  Mass market growth continued its streak of around 30% growth rate, growing 32% in May.  VIP volume and win rose 8%, in-line with April's growth. 

LVS

LVS took the top spot for table revenue growth at 43% for the 4th consecutive month.  The company had the highest mass revenue growth at 66%.  Its RC volume grew 23%.  We estimate that LVS held normal at 2.76% in May compared to 2.53% last May, assuming direct play of 15% vs. 23% last year.  Venetian and FS played lucky while SCC and Sands Macau held low.

  • Sands eked out a 1% gain YoY
    • Mass grew 32%, its best monthly YoY growth in a long-time
    • VIP fell 27% 
    • Sands held very low but also had an easier comp.  We estimate that Sands held at 1.8% compared to 2.3% in the same period last year.  We assume 11% direct play in May vs 9% in May 2012.
    • Junket RC fell 8%, its 3rd consecutive month of declines
  • Venetian grew 63% YoY, the property's best growth since January 2012
    • Mass increased 55%
    • VIP revenue skyrocketed 70% due to high hold
    • Junket VIP RC fell 5%, its 15th decline in the past 16 months
    • Assuming 27% direct play, hold was 3.5% compared to 2.0% in May 2012, assuming 28% direct play 
  • Four Seasons jumped 42% YoY
    • Mass revenues increased 24%
    • VIP grew 45%
    • Junket VIP RC jumped 32%. May hold (assuming 11% direct play) was 3.1% vs 2.7% in May 2012 when direct play was 16%.
  • Sands Cotai Central grew 46% YoY
    • Mass jumped 167% to $87MM, a new monthly high 
    • VIP revenues grew 8% to $110MM
    • Junket RC volume of $4.4BN, up 72% YoY 
    • If we assume that direct play was 11%, hold would have been 2.2% 

MPEL

MPEL had a solid month, lobbing in the 2nd best table growth of 31%.  Mass grew 63% while VIP growth was 22%. We estimate that MPEL held at 2.70% vs 2.78% last May.  Estimated direct play was 10% vs. 10.5% last year.

  • Altira revenues grew 33%, the property's best growth rate in 20 months.  Mass rose 28% while VIP saw a 33% YoY increase.
    • VIP RC grew 25%
    • We estimate that hold was 2.8%, compared to 2.6% in the prior year
  • CoD table revenues grew 30% YoY
    • Mass increased 68%, continuing its impressive streak of strong YoY double-digit gains since the property opened
    • VIP win grew 16% and RC grew 28%
    • Assuming a 13.5% direct play level, hold was 2.7% in May compared to 2.9% last year (assuming 14.7% direct play)

WYNN

Wynn table revenues grew 22%

  • VIP revenues grew 25%, while VIP RC increased 1% 
  • Wynn held at 3.1% vs 2.6% last May
  • Mass revenues increased 9%

MGM

MGM had a strong performance in May, growing 25% in table revenues. 

  • We estimate that hold was 3.1% adjusted for direct play of 7% vs hold of 3.2% last year assuming 9% direct play
  • VIP RC and Mass both grew 29% 

GALAXY

Tables revenues grew 8%. VIP RC had the worst market performance, falling 6%.  On the bright spot, Mass growth was very strong at 44%.  Hold was 3.2% in May 2013 vs. 3.0% last year.

  • StarWorld table revenues rose 20%
    • Mass soared 44%
    • VIP gained 17%.  
    • Junket RC rose 6%, breaking 11 straight months of declines 
    • Hold was 3.1% vs 2.8% last year
  • Galaxy Macau's table revenues was flat
    • Mass had another great month at 44% growth
    • VIP saw a second consecutive decline at -12% and RC also fell 12%.  
    • Hold was 3.2%, similar to May last year

SJM

SJM performed relatively poorly in May, partially due to hard comps and lower hold.  Total table revenue fell 12%, with the worst mass market share growth (none) and VIP revenue decline of 16%. RC volume dropped 2%.  SJM held at 2.8% vs 3.2% last year.

SEQUENTIAL MARKET SHARE - April to May

LVS

Market share lost 90bps to 20.9%.  May’s share is in-line with LVS’s 6-month average of 21.1% and better than its 2012 average share of 19.0%. 

  • Sands' share fell 20bps to 2.8%.  For comparison purposes, 2012 share was 3.9% and 6M trailing average share was 3.4%.
    • Mass share jumped 130bps to 5.9% in May
    • VIP rev share fell 80bps to 1.5%, a new all-time low
    • RC share was 2.2%, flat MoM and in-line with the all-time low for the property set in March
  • Venetian’s share was flat at 8.5%.  2012 share was 7.9% and 6 month trailing share was 8.3%.
    • Mass share decreased 1.5% to 14.4%
    • VIP share improved 50bps to 6.0%
    • Junket RC share gained 40bps to 3.9%
  • FS gained lost 20bps to 3.7%.  This compares to 2012 share of 3.7% and 6M trailing average share of 3.2%.
    • VIP was flat 4.7%
    • Mass share fell 20bps to 1.5%
    • Junket RC was flat at 4.1%
  • Sands Cotai Central's table market share fell 50bps to 5.5%, which compares to the 6M trailing average share of 5.8%.
    • Mass share improved 40bps to 8.2%.
    • VIP share fell 0.9% to 4.4%
    • Junket RC share was flat at 5.5%

MPEL

MPEL lost 2.3% in share in May to 14%. Its 6 month trailing share is 14.0% and their 2012 share of 13.5%.  

  • Altira’s share fell 20bps to 3.8%, above its 6M and 12M trailing share of 3.9%
    • Mass share was flat at 1.3%
    • VIP lost 40bps to 4.8%
    • VIP RC share fell 40bps to 5.2%
  • CoD’s share lost 2.1% to 10.2%, but still above the property’s 2012 and 6M trailing share of 9.4% and 10.0%, respectively.
    • Mass market share grew 1.5% to 12.5%
    • VIP share tumbled 3.6% to 9.2%
    • Junket share ticked down 20bps to 9.3%

WYNN

Wynn was the largest share gainer in May, gaining 260bps to 12%.  2012 average share was 11.9% and their 6M trailing average share has been 11.0%.

  • Mass share was fell 50bps to 7.3%
  • VIP share gained 4.1% to 13.9%
  • Junket RC share increased 80bps to 12.5%

MGM 

MGM’s market share rose 2.5% to 11.4%, above its 6M and 2012 average of 9.6% and 9.9%, respectively

  • Mass share gained 40bps to 7.8%
  • VIP share improved 3.4% to 12.6%
  • Junket RC gained 1.0% to 11.8%

GALAXY

Galaxy's share gained 1.2% to 18.8%, below its 2012 average share of 19.0% but above its 6-month average of 17.9%

  • Galaxy Macau share improved 0.5% to 10.8%
    • Mass share gained 1.1% to 10.8%, an all-time property high
    • VIP share improved 30bps to 10.8%
    • RC share lost 10bps to 9.8%
  • Starworld share gained 2% to 7.8%
    • Mass share was lower by 40bps at 3.4%
    • VIP share jumped 3% to 9.6%
    • RC share gained 70bps to 9.5%

SJM

SJM was the largest share donor, losing 3% MoM to 22.9%, which is below their 2012 average of 26.7% and their 6M trailing average of 26.4%, and a new all-time low

  • Mass market share declined 70bps to 24.7%, an all-time company low
  • VIP share fell 4.3% to 22.8%
  • Junket RC share fell 2.2% to 25.6%

Slot Revenue

Slot revenue grew only 5% YoY to $152MM in May

  • Galaxy had the best YoY growth at 43% to $20MM
  • LVS grew of 9% YoY to $43MM
  • MPEL gained 5% YoY to $25MM
  • MGM fell 1% to $25MM
  • WYNN dropped 8% to $21MM
  • SJM had the worst YoY slot performance, losing 9% to $18MM

MAY MACAU REVIEW - market