MAY MACAU REVIEW

06/06/13 07:32AM EDT

The details behind the May numbers

As you know, May GGR grew 13.5% YoY to HK$28.7 billion.  We estimate that including direct play, VIP hold was 2.91% versus a normalized 3.00%.  Had VIP hold been normal this May, YoY growth in GGR would’ve grown 16.5%.  With normal VIP hold in both periods, GGR growth would have been 13.9% (similar to what was reported).  We expect June growth to be similar to May but July could spike close to 20%.

YOY TABLE OBSERVATIONS

Total table revenue grew 14% YoY.  Mass market growth continued its streak of around 30% growth rate, growing 32% in May.  VIP volume and win rose 8%, in-line with April's growth. 

LVS

LVS took the top spot for table revenue growth at 43% for the 4th consecutive month.  The company had the highest mass revenue growth at 66%.  Its RC volume grew 23%.  We estimate that LVS held normal at 2.76% in May compared to 2.53% last May, assuming direct play of 15% vs. 23% last year.  Venetian and FS played lucky while SCC and Sands Macau held low.

  • Sands eked out a 1% gain YoY
    • Mass grew 32%, its best monthly YoY growth in a long-time
    • VIP fell 27% 
    • Sands held very low but also had an easier comp.  We estimate that Sands held at 1.8% compared to 2.3% in the same period last year.  We assume 11% direct play in May vs 9% in May 2012.
    • Junket RC fell 8%, its 3rd consecutive month of declines
  • Venetian grew 63% YoY, the property's best growth since January 2012
    • Mass increased 55%
    • VIP revenue skyrocketed 70% due to high hold
    • Junket VIP RC fell 5%, its 15th decline in the past 16 months
    • Assuming 27% direct play, hold was 3.5% compared to 2.0% in May 2012, assuming 28% direct play 
  • Four Seasons jumped 42% YoY
    • Mass revenues increased 24%
    • VIP grew 45%
    • Junket VIP RC jumped 32%. May hold (assuming 11% direct play) was 3.1% vs 2.7% in May 2012 when direct play was 16%.
  • Sands Cotai Central grew 46% YoY
    • Mass jumped 167% to $87MM, a new monthly high 
    • VIP revenues grew 8% to $110MM
    • Junket RC volume of $4.4BN, up 72% YoY 
    • If we assume that direct play was 11%, hold would have been 2.2% 

MPEL

MPEL had a solid month, lobbing in the 2nd best table growth of 31%.  Mass grew 63% while VIP growth was 22%. We estimate that MPEL held at 2.70% vs 2.78% last May.  Estimated direct play was 10% vs. 10.5% last year.

  • Altira revenues grew 33%, the property's best growth rate in 20 months.  Mass rose 28% while VIP saw a 33% YoY increase.
    • VIP RC grew 25%
    • We estimate that hold was 2.8%, compared to 2.6% in the prior year
  • CoD table revenues grew 30% YoY
    • Mass increased 68%, continuing its impressive streak of strong YoY double-digit gains since the property opened
    • VIP win grew 16% and RC grew 28%
    • Assuming a 13.5% direct play level, hold was 2.7% in May compared to 2.9% last year (assuming 14.7% direct play)

WYNN

Wynn table revenues grew 22%

  • VIP revenues grew 25%, while VIP RC increased 1% 
  • Wynn held at 3.1% vs 2.6% last May
  • Mass revenues increased 9%

MGM

MGM had a strong performance in May, growing 25% in table revenues. 

  • We estimate that hold was 3.1% adjusted for direct play of 7% vs hold of 3.2% last year assuming 9% direct play
  • VIP RC and Mass both grew 29% 

GALAXY

Tables revenues grew 8%. VIP RC had the worst market performance, falling 6%.  On the bright spot, Mass growth was very strong at 44%.  Hold was 3.2% in May 2013 vs. 3.0% last year.

  • StarWorld table revenues rose 20%
    • Mass soared 44%
    • VIP gained 17%.  
    • Junket RC rose 6%, breaking 11 straight months of declines 
    • Hold was 3.1% vs 2.8% last year
  • Galaxy Macau's table revenues was flat
    • Mass had another great month at 44% growth
    • VIP saw a second consecutive decline at -12% and RC also fell 12%.  
    • Hold was 3.2%, similar to May last year

SJM

SJM performed relatively poorly in May, partially due to hard comps and lower hold.  Total table revenue fell 12%, with the worst mass market share growth (none) and VIP revenue decline of 16%. RC volume dropped 2%.  SJM held at 2.8% vs 3.2% last year.

SEQUENTIAL MARKET SHARE - April to May

LVS

Market share lost 90bps to 20.9%.  May’s share is in-line with LVS’s 6-month average of 21.1% and better than its 2012 average share of 19.0%. 

  • Sands' share fell 20bps to 2.8%.  For comparison purposes, 2012 share was 3.9% and 6M trailing average share was 3.4%.
    • Mass share jumped 130bps to 5.9% in May
    • VIP rev share fell 80bps to 1.5%, a new all-time low
    • RC share was 2.2%, flat MoM and in-line with the all-time low for the property set in March
  • Venetian’s share was flat at 8.5%.  2012 share was 7.9% and 6 month trailing share was 8.3%.
    • Mass share decreased 1.5% to 14.4%
    • VIP share improved 50bps to 6.0%
    • Junket RC share gained 40bps to 3.9%
  • FS gained lost 20bps to 3.7%.  This compares to 2012 share of 3.7% and 6M trailing average share of 3.2%.
    • VIP was flat 4.7%
    • Mass share fell 20bps to 1.5%
    • Junket RC was flat at 4.1%
  • Sands Cotai Central's table market share fell 50bps to 5.5%, which compares to the 6M trailing average share of 5.8%.
    • Mass share improved 40bps to 8.2%.
    • VIP share fell 0.9% to 4.4%
    • Junket RC share was flat at 5.5%

MPEL

MPEL lost 2.3% in share in May to 14%. Its 6 month trailing share is 14.0% and their 2012 share of 13.5%.  

  • Altira’s share fell 20bps to 3.8%, above its 6M and 12M trailing share of 3.9%
    • Mass share was flat at 1.3%
    • VIP lost 40bps to 4.8%
    • VIP RC share fell 40bps to 5.2%
  • CoD’s share lost 2.1% to 10.2%, but still above the property’s 2012 and 6M trailing share of 9.4% and 10.0%, respectively.
    • Mass market share grew 1.5% to 12.5%
    • VIP share tumbled 3.6% to 9.2%
    • Junket share ticked down 20bps to 9.3%

WYNN

Wynn was the largest share gainer in May, gaining 260bps to 12%.  2012 average share was 11.9% and their 6M trailing average share has been 11.0%.

  • Mass share was fell 50bps to 7.3%
  • VIP share gained 4.1% to 13.9%
  • Junket RC share increased 80bps to 12.5%

MGM 

MGM’s market share rose 2.5% to 11.4%, above its 6M and 2012 average of 9.6% and 9.9%, respectively

  • Mass share gained 40bps to 7.8%
  • VIP share improved 3.4% to 12.6%
  • Junket RC gained 1.0% to 11.8%

GALAXY

Galaxy's share gained 1.2% to 18.8%, below its 2012 average share of 19.0% but above its 6-month average of 17.9%

  • Galaxy Macau share improved 0.5% to 10.8%
    • Mass share gained 1.1% to 10.8%, an all-time property high
    • VIP share improved 30bps to 10.8%
    • RC share lost 10bps to 9.8%
  • Starworld share gained 2% to 7.8%
    • Mass share was lower by 40bps at 3.4%
    • VIP share jumped 3% to 9.6%
    • RC share gained 70bps to 9.5%

SJM

SJM was the largest share donor, losing 3% MoM to 22.9%, which is below their 2012 average of 26.7% and their 6M trailing average of 26.4%, and a new all-time low

  • Mass market share declined 70bps to 24.7%, an all-time company low
  • VIP share fell 4.3% to 22.8%
  • Junket RC share fell 2.2% to 25.6%

Slot Revenue

Slot revenue grew only 5% YoY to $152MM in May

  • Galaxy had the best YoY growth at 43% to $20MM
  • LVS grew of 9% YoY to $43MM
  • MPEL gained 5% YoY to $25MM
  • MGM fell 1% to $25MM
  • WYNN dropped 8% to $21MM
  • SJM had the worst YoY slot performance, losing 9% to $18MM

MAY MACAU REVIEW - market

© 2024 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.