THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 14, 2012


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or -0.79% downside to 1393 and 0.13% upside to 1406. 

                                            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT: 

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/13 NYSE -799
    • Down versus the prior day’s trading of 195
  • VOLUME: on 08/13 NYSE 484.08
    • Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -14.49%
  • VIX:  as of 08/13 was at 13.70
    • Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -7.06%
    • Year-to-date decrease of -41.45%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/13 closed at 1.54
    • Down from the day prior at 1.64 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD: as of this morning 33
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
  • 10-Year: as of this morning 1.67%
    • Increased from prior day’s trading of 1.66%
  • YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.40
    • Unchanged from prior day’s trading 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Business, July, est. 91.6 (prior 91.4)
  • 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
  • 8:30am: Producer Price Index M/m, July, est. 0.2% (prior 0.1%)
  • 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, July, est. 0.3% (prior -0.5%)
  • 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Aug., est. 46.9 (prior 47)
  • 10am: Business Inventories, June, est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $4.5b-$5.5b notes due 8/15/20-5/15/22
  • 11am: U.S. Treasury announces plans for auctions of 3-mo., 6-mo., 1-yr. bills; 5-yr. TIPS
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $25b 15-day cash management bills in addition to weekly auction of 4-wk bills
  • 4:30pm: API inventories 

GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:

    • House/Senate not in session
    • President Obama speaks in Oskaloosa, Iowa. 12:25pm, Marshalltown, Iowa. 4:45pm
    • Mitt Romney wraps up 4-day bus tour in Beallsville, Ohio. Noon
    • NJ Gov. Chris Christie to be keynote speaker at Republican convention, AP says
    • Judge may rule this week on Pa. voter identification law
    • State primary elections in Minn., Conn., Fla., Wis.

WHAT TO WATCH: 

  • U.S. retail sales probably rose 0.3%, 1st time in 4 mos.
  • Euro-area GDP contracts 0.2% in 2Q from prior quarter
  • German 2Q GDP slowed less than forecast, France avoids GDP drop
  • Standard Chartered CEO visits New York, may attend hearing
  • Groupon tumbles after 2Q rev. misses ests.
  • Pfizer buys over-the-counter Nexium rights from AstraZeneca
  • New York Fed finds 63% of small firms able to get some credit
  • Doug Whitman denies trading on Polycom tips from Roomy Khan
  • Peregrine CEO Wasendorf indicted on 31 false-statement counts
  • Kodak, creditors extend deadline for digital patents auction
  • Mercedes, Lexus, Audi luxury sedans earn poor crash-test ratings
  • 13F quarterly filing deadline today

EARNINGS:

    • Home Depot (HD) 6am, $0.97
    • Towers Watson (TW) 6am, $1.24
    • Flowers Foods (FLO) 6:26am, $0.22
    • First Majestic Silver (FR CN) 7am, $0.20
    • Michael Kors (KORS) 7am, $0.20
    • Estee Lauder (EL) 7:30am, $0.16
    • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) 7:30am, $0.64
    • Nationstar Mortgage Holdings (NSM) 7:30am, $0.34
    • Baytex Energy (BTE CN) 8am, C$0.28
    • Saks (SKS) 8am, $(0.09)
    • TJX Cos (TJX) 8:34am, $0.55
    • Valspar (VAL) 8:42am, $0.96
    • Alacer Gold (ASR CN) 9:28am, $0.10
    • Bob Evans Farms (BOBE) 4:01pm, $0.60
    • JDS Uniphase (JDSU) 4:04pm, $0.12
    • Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) 4:05pm, $0.46
    • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) 4:05pm, $0.34
    • Boardwalk Real Estate Investment Trust (BEIu CN) 5:46pm, $0.74
    • China Gold International Resources (CGG CN) Post-Mkt, NA
    • HudBay Minerals (HBM CN) Post-Mkt, $0.08
    • Pan American Silver (PAA CN) Post-Mkt, $0.33

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

 

COPPER – tough to fool the Doctor (or bond yields) here on no-volume inflation rallies – Copper continues to break-down, across durations, failing at 3.43/lb TRADE line support, again. 

  • Silver Hoard Near Record as Hedge-Fund Bulls Recoil: Commodities
  • Oil Supplies Drop to Four-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets
  • Oil Rises for First Time in Three Days on Supply Drop Forecast
  • Soybeans, Corn Advance as Drought May Persist in U.S. Midwest
  • Copper Advances as Germany’s Economic Growth Exceeds Estimates
  • Gold Gains in London as Weaker Dollar Spurs Investment Demand
  • Robusta Coffee Falls as Indonesian Supply May Climb; Sugar Rises
  • Fracking Hazards Obscured in Failure to Disclose Wells: Energy
  • Lonmin Mine Violence Kills Nine, Including Two Policemen
  • Philippines Agency Plans to Sell Mining Assets: Southeast Asia
  • Cotton Harvest in Australia Seen Climbing to Record on Water
  • Natural Gas Trades Near Six-Week Low as Cooler Weather Forecast
  • Peregrine Chief Wasendorf Indicted on 31 False-Statement Counts
  • Chalco Will Buy 35.3% Stake in Ningxia Power for $318 Million
  • Japan Seeks to Buy 70,865 Tons of Milling Wheat in Tender
  • Japan’s Executives Swelter in Solidarity to Spare Electricity

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

 

CURRENCIES

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


GERMANY – some media fanfare on a “better than expected” German GDP print; in other news, Germany’s GDP falls precipitously q/q from +1.7% y/y in Q1 to +0.5% in Q2 – Growth Slowing as inflation accelerates again here in August (probably why German ZEW for AUG was a -25.5 vs -19.7 JULY).

 

UK – can you stay stagflation? Say it slowly as the FTSE slowly makes lower no-volume highs post the Closing Ceremonies. UK CPI rises to +2.6% y/y in July vs +2.3% in JUN, consistent with what most countries should print JULY/AUGUST. Brent Oil $114 matters.

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 



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