TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – August 14, 2012
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 13 points or -0.79% downside to 1393 and 0.13% upside to 1406.
SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: on 08/13 NYSE -799
- Down versus the prior day’s trading of 195
- VOLUME: on 08/13 NYSE 484.08
- Decrease versus prior day’s trading of -14.49%
- VIX: as of 08/13 was at 13.70
- Decrease versus most recent day’s trading of -7.06%
- Year-to-date decrease of -41.45%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: as of 08/13 closed at 1.54
- Down from the day prior at 1.64
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- TED SPREAD: as of this morning 33
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: as of this morning 0.10%
- 10-Year: as of this morning 1.67%
- Increased from prior day’s trading of 1.66%
- YIELD CURVE: as of this morning 1.40
- Unchanged from prior day’s trading
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)
- 7:30am: NFIB Small Business, July, est. 91.6 (prior 91.4)
- 7:45am/8:55am: ICSC/Redbook weekly retail sales
- 8:30am: Producer Price Index M/m, July, est. 0.2% (prior 0.1%)
- 8:30am: Advance Retail Sales, July, est. 0.3% (prior -0.5%)
- 10am: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Aug., est. 46.9 (prior 47)
- 10am: Business Inventories, June, est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%)
- 11am: Fed to purchase $4.5b-$5.5b notes due 8/15/20-5/15/22
- 11am: U.S. Treasury announces plans for auctions of 3-mo., 6-mo., 1-yr. bills; 5-yr. TIPS
- 11:30am: U.S. to sell $25b 15-day cash management bills in addition to weekly auction of 4-wk bills
- 4:30pm: API inventories
GOVERNMENT/POLITICS:
- House/Senate not in session
- President Obama speaks in Oskaloosa, Iowa. 12:25pm, Marshalltown, Iowa. 4:45pm
- Mitt Romney wraps up 4-day bus tour in Beallsville, Ohio. Noon
- NJ Gov. Chris Christie to be keynote speaker at Republican convention, AP says
- Judge may rule this week on Pa. voter identification law
- State primary elections in Minn., Conn., Fla., Wis.
WHAT TO WATCH:
- U.S. retail sales probably rose 0.3%, 1st time in 4 mos.
- Euro-area GDP contracts 0.2% in 2Q from prior quarter
- German 2Q GDP slowed less than forecast, France avoids GDP drop
- Standard Chartered CEO visits New York, may attend hearing
- Groupon tumbles after 2Q rev. misses ests.
- Pfizer buys over-the-counter Nexium rights from AstraZeneca
- New York Fed finds 63% of small firms able to get some credit
- Doug Whitman denies trading on Polycom tips from Roomy Khan
- Peregrine CEO Wasendorf indicted on 31 false-statement counts
- Kodak, creditors extend deadline for digital patents auction
- Mercedes, Lexus, Audi luxury sedans earn poor crash-test ratings
- 13F quarterly filing deadline today
EARNINGS:
- Home Depot (HD) 6am, $0.97
- Towers Watson (TW) 6am, $1.24
- Flowers Foods (FLO) 6:26am, $0.22
- First Majestic Silver (FR CN) 7am, $0.20
- Michael Kors (KORS) 7am, $0.20
- Estee Lauder (EL) 7:30am, $0.16
- Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) 7:30am, $0.64
- Nationstar Mortgage Holdings (NSM) 7:30am, $0.34
- Baytex Energy (BTE CN) 8am, C$0.28
- Saks (SKS) 8am, $(0.09)
- TJX Cos (TJX) 8:34am, $0.55
- Valspar (VAL) 8:42am, $0.96
- Alacer Gold (ASR CN) 9:28am, $0.10
- Bob Evans Farms (BOBE) 4:01pm, $0.60
- JDS Uniphase (JDSU) 4:04pm, $0.12
- Jack Henry & Associates (JKHY) 4:05pm, $0.46
- Myriad Genetics (MYGN) 4:05pm, $0.34
- Boardwalk Real Estate Investment Trust (BEIu CN) 5:46pm, $0.74
- China Gold International Resources (CGG CN) Post-Mkt, NA
- HudBay Minerals (HBM CN) Post-Mkt, $0.08
- Pan American Silver (PAA CN) Post-Mkt, $0.33
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
COPPER – tough to fool the Doctor (or bond yields) here on no-volume inflation rallies – Copper continues to break-down, across durations, failing at 3.43/lb TRADE line support, again.
- Silver Hoard Near Record as Hedge-Fund Bulls Recoil: Commodities
- Oil Supplies Drop to Four-Month Low in Survey: Energy Markets
- Oil Rises for First Time in Three Days on Supply Drop Forecast
- Soybeans, Corn Advance as Drought May Persist in U.S. Midwest
- Copper Advances as Germany’s Economic Growth Exceeds Estimates
- Gold Gains in London as Weaker Dollar Spurs Investment Demand
- Robusta Coffee Falls as Indonesian Supply May Climb; Sugar Rises
- Fracking Hazards Obscured in Failure to Disclose Wells: Energy
- Lonmin Mine Violence Kills Nine, Including Two Policemen
- Philippines Agency Plans to Sell Mining Assets: Southeast Asia
- Cotton Harvest in Australia Seen Climbing to Record on Water
- Natural Gas Trades Near Six-Week Low as Cooler Weather Forecast
- Peregrine Chief Wasendorf Indicted on 31 False-Statement Counts
- Chalco Will Buy 35.3% Stake in Ningxia Power for $318 Million
- Japan Seeks to Buy 70,865 Tons of Milling Wheat in Tender
- Japan’s Executives Swelter in Solidarity to Spare Electricity
CURRENCIES
EUROPEAN MARKETS
GERMANY – some media fanfare on a “better than expected” German GDP print; in other news, Germany’s GDP falls precipitously q/q from +1.7% y/y in Q1 to +0.5% in Q2 – Growth Slowing as inflation accelerates again here in August (probably why German ZEW for AUG was a -25.5 vs -19.7 JULY).
UK – can you stay stagflation? Say it slowly as the FTSE slowly makes lower no-volume highs post the Closing Ceremonies. UK CPI rises to +2.6% y/y in July vs +2.3% in JUN, consistent with what most countries should print JULY/AUGUST. Brent Oil $114 matters.
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team