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JCP: Shorting (Again)

 

Keith just re-shorted JCP, our top short idea, in the Hedgeye virtual portfolio here on an up day.

 

Our thesis remains unchanged – people expect transformational change and they very well may get it, but not before an increase in capital spending that will significantly impact margins before the benefit of Johnson’s initiatives are fully realized.

 

JCP: Shorting (Again) - JCP VP 7 13 11

 

 


WEEKLY COMMODITY MONITOR - CMG, MCD, PEET, GMCR, SBUX, JACK, DPZ, CAKE

Agricultural commodities went higher, week-over-week, with just a few exceptions.  Despite prices coming down during the latter part of the quarter, 2Q earnings are likely to hit on significant spot market inflation for many restaurant companies.

 

Corn, sugar, and wheat prices went sharply higher week-over-week. Coffee and cheese were the only commodities to decline over the last week.  Coffee traded with a tight inverse-correlation to the US Dollar.

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY MONITOR - CMG, MCD, PEET, GMCR, SBUX, JACK, DPZ, CAKE - commods 713

 

 

CORN

 

Corn prices have gained strongly over the past few weeks, reassuming the positive trend that has prevailed for much of the past twelve months.  China, the second largest consumer of corn globally, may more than double purchases to a record as it seeks to boost stockpiles and cool the fastest inflation in three years, according to Bloomberg.  Corn is up 95% year-over-year, which continues to pressure the food processors.  While some companies like SAFM may have corn hedged at favorable prices currently, as the TSN management team candidly put it during its most recent earnings call, to the extent that contracts are rolling over in the next six months or so, margins are likely to remain depressed in that space in FY12.  Below is a selection of comments from management teams pertaining to corn prices from recent earnings calls.

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY MONITOR - CMG, MCD, PEET, GMCR, SBUX, JACK, DPZ, CAKE - corn 713

  • CMG (4/20/11): The only things we have locks on corn for most of the year, rice for the entire year, our tortillas and beans for most of the year as well.  Hedgeye: CMG will likely have to renew any corn contract at a level far higher than the one it currently holds. 
  • MCD (4/21/11): And so if the commodity markets move significantly from here and the main ones obviously looking at beef, looking at corn, wheat, coffee, et cetera, our guidance reflects where the markets are today. Hedgeye: Looking at where the prices of these commodities have gone since this quote, one would have to think guidance for commodity costs are going higher.

 

COFFEE

 

Coffee prices have declined sharply week-over-week as the dollar has, week-over-week, strengthened.  Over the last couple of days, the price of coffee has gained as the dollar has faded.  For the coffee concepts, SBUX, PEET, GMCR, MCD, DNKN, CBOU, and THI, rising commodity costs are a serious concern.  While some of these companies have prices locked in, to the extent that contracts may be coming up for renewal, prices are likely to burden restaurant-level margins sooner or later.  Below is a selection of comments from management teams pertaining to coffee prices from recent earnings calls.

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY MONITOR - CMG, MCD, PEET, GMCR, SBUX, JACK, DPZ, CAKE - coffee 713

  • PEET (5/3/2011): We believe we're better off lowering our earnings guidance by $0.10 this year and continuing with the plans we have in place than we would be curtailing spending activity or taking extraordinary pricing action that would be inconsistent with our long-term business interests, and the more sustainable long term cost of coffee we foresee.  As a result, you will see throughout our call today that we have a very strong performing fundamental business, but we have to buy some unusually high priced coffee in the short term, then we're not going to do unnatural things in reaction to an unnatural market environment short term. Hedgeye: We’ve noted this before: coffee prices trade on a very tight inverse-correlation to the US Dollar.  While it seems that price may have been “unusual” to management teams in May, it is taking quite a while for prices to adjust, making these levels less and less unusual.
  • GMCR: (5/3/11): Before closing, I also want to touch on rising coffee costs and the effect of our business. Like others in the industry, we are closely watching coffee prices. When we announced our last price increase in September of 2010, coffee prices had increased roughly 30% from $1.45 to $1.90 per pound over the course of roughly three months. Since then, costs have continued to escalate, recently hitting historic highs of more than $3 a pound, a nearl 60% increase since September.  In attempt to offset rising green coffee costs, as well as increases in other input costs, we are currently in the process of raising prices for all packaged types. We expect that consumers will see an increase of approximately 10% at the point-of-purchase as the result of this price increase. We expect to see the full benefit of this price increase during our fiscal fourth quarter of 2011.  We generally fix the price of our coffee contracts three to nine months prior to delivery so that we can adjust our sales prices to the marketplace.  Hedgeye: Coffee has backed off the “historic” high of more than $3 per pound but is still at $2.60 plus.  Demand remains strong; without a rising dollar, expect price to continue to pressure retailers.
  • SBUX (4/27/11): Regarding coffee costs, as I have indicated previously, we have fully locked our coffee costs for 2011 and are price-protected for a couple months into fiscal 2012.  As we progress through the balance of 2011, we will progressively take actions to secure our coffee needs and lock coffee costs for additional months into 2012. While we expect that the costs we pay for coffee may be higher in '12 than they are in '11, we remain confident that we can offset those increased costs and preserve our long-term earnings growth targets.  Hedgeye: SBUX is confident that it can pass on price and offset coffee inflation with other efficiencies.  It is interesting that it expects higher coffee prices in 2012 than in 2011, which would somewhat contradict PEET’s assertion that in May that prices at the time had been unusual.  SBUX expects worse prices to come.

 

 

CHEESE

 

Cheese prices have come down sharply over the last week but remain above the 1Q highs.  For DPZ, PZZA, CAKE, YUM’s Pizza Hut and other restaurant companies, this is a crucial data point.  CAKE has been maintaining a +2.5% inflation target in the back half of the year after +4.5% in the 1H (guided, not reported).  Looking at commodity costs, and dairy in particular which is important for CAKE’s basket, the implausibility of this +2.5% target is clear.  Some large holders of DPZ have been paring their positions of late as cheese prices have marched higher.  Given the volatility in dairy markets this year, it is unwise to extrapolate any given data point, but trusting the guidance of management teams on cheese prices could prove equally unwise.  Below is a selection of comments from management teams pertaining to cheese prices from recent earnings calls.

 

WEEKLY COMMODITY MONITOR - CMG, MCD, PEET, GMCR, SBUX, JACK, DPZ, CAKE - cheese 713

  • JACK (5.19.11): “Cheese also accounts for about 6% of our spend and we continue to expect a 15% increase for the year.” Hedgeye: This is a headwind for JACK – cheese prices are up more than double the 15% guidance. 
  • DPZ (5.5.11):  “And really the one to watch as always is cheese and our best bet right now is that it's going to stay relatively close to where it is right now but cheese is the one that often gives the biggest surprises either up or down and that's the one to kind of watch but assuming cheese stays relatively flat from here on out then, the absolute food costs from – through the rest of the year are probably going to stay pretty consistent with where they were in Q1 which to your point means the percentage year-over-year increase will probably ease a little bit over the course of the year.”  Hedgeye: Hope is not an investment process.  DPZ’s earnings call took place at a trough in cheese prices.  I expect a different tone on the next earnings call in discussing this particular item.
  • CAKE (4.20.11):  “The first half of the year, we're expecting food cost inflation of about 4.5% plus and then in the last half of the year, about 2.5% minus. And a lot of that has to do with the fact that we expect to lap a lot of high dairy costs from 2010 and the fourth quarter of 2011, but also due to the fact that we expect to have slightly lower fresh fish costs, slightly lower cheese prices, than last year as well.”
  • CMG (4.20.11):  As we move into 2011, we’re expanding our use of cheese and sour cream made with milk from cows.  Hedgeye: This company has driven sufficient traffic to gain leverage over commodity costs but, I would caution, some margin pressure is likely from their unparalleled exposure to commodity spot markets.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


TALES OF THE TAPE: YUM, CBOU, GMCR, PEET, SBUX, DNKN, PFCB, CBRL

Notable news items and price action from the restaurant space, as well as our fundamental view on select names.

 

MACRO

 

Commodities over the past week have largely gained in price.  Coffee and cheese prices are exceptions, their prices declined -2.7% and -3.2%, respectively.  We will be following up with a more detailed commodity post this morning.

 

In terms of consumer subsectors, quick service restaurants stood out on the downside yesterday as the high-flying coffee names retraced some of their outperformance.  The beverage space declined sharply also, led by SODA and LBIX.

 

TALES OF THE TAPE: YUM, CBOU, GMCR, PEET, SBUX, DNKN, PFCB, CBRL - subsectors 713

 

 

QUICK SERVICE RESTAURANTS

  • YUM is reporting today after the close.  Consistent with my view of this earnings season’s trends, top line is what matters most.  I expect YUM to be strong on the top-line where it matters most: China.  Inflation in China is starting to impact consumer confidence but the KFC value promotions/day-part expansion is driving double-digit same-store sales.  In the USA, the consensus decline of -1.6% is too meek, in my view.  I believe the number could be down as much of 3 or 4%.  YRI will likely be in line, with same-restaurant sales of 1-to-2%. 
  • CBOU, GMCR, PEET, and SBUX all declined yesterday. CBOU and GMCR declined -6.4% and -5.1%, respectively, on accelerating volume.
  • DNKN’s IPO is expected to price on July 26th.

 

CASUAL DINING

  • PFCB will be celebrating its 18th anniversary this month by giving away free lettuce wraps between now and July 31 to anyone who “likes” their Facebook page.  The offer of free lettuce wraps is resulting in a strong uptick in traffic to the company’s Facebook page.
  • CBRL is trading ex-dividend and is currently a SHORT in the Hedgeye virtual portfolio.

TALES OF THE TAPE: YUM, CBOU, GMCR, PEET, SBUX, DNKN, PFCB, CBRL - stocks 713

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Rory Green

Analyst

 


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THE M3: MORE WORKERS NEEDED; CHINA GDP

The Macau Metro Monitor, July 13, 2011

 

 

GAMING SECTOR NEEDS AT LEAST 1,000 MORE WORKERS: ASSOCIATION Macau Business
The Macau Gaming Industry Employees Association, Macau's biggest casino workers union, says the local casino sector needs at least 1,000 more workers as new properties on Cotai are set to open in the coming years.  According to the association’s head, João Bosco Cheang Hong Lok, Macau casinos are already facing manpower shortages. 

 

CHINA GDP GROWTH FASTER THAN EXPECTED, MAY TIGHTEN POLICY WSJ

China Q2 GDP came in at 9.5% YoY growth, higher than the 9.4% polled by economists. Q2 GDP also accelerated 2.2% sequentially.


Home Tweets

This note was originally published at 8am on July 08, 2011. INVESTOR and RISK MANAGER SUBSCRIBERS have access to the EARLY LOOK (published by 8am every trading day) and PORTFOLIO IDEAS in real-time.

"Every strike brings me closer to the next home run."

-Babe Ruth

 

Someone tweeted that winner’s one-liner from Babe Ruth yesterday while I was scanning my iPad in between meetings in New Jersey and New York. It fired me up. I love a great quote. And I love a great Tweet.

 

Hitting a Home Tweet out of the park on Twitter is a thing of beauty. Sometimes it’s a tweet that makes you laugh. Sometimes it’s a tweet that makes you cringe. All of the time, tweets are real-time. And that’s where I think Wall Street is going. Real-time, transparency, and accountability. Opacity is dead.

 

Plenty of people whine about how dysfunctional Wall Street can be. Agreed on the dysfunctional part, but what’s up with the whining? We need to get back to winning in this business. We should embrace the inability of an industry to evolve as a tremendous opportunity for change. And that’s all I have to say about that.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

My notebook is jam packed with data this morning. From China and Copper breaking out on our intermediate-term TREND duration to US Treasury yields sniffing out an immediate-term TRADE breakout of their own, there’s a lot of interconnectedness to consider.

1.   CHINA: Chinese stocks don’t want to go down anymore (they’ve been down for 15 months) and China is going to preemptively print the top-tick in their 2011 inflation (CPI) this weekend. As Johnny-come-latelys on inflation-fear clamor around this, I wanted to be crystal clear that we think Chinese CPI will fall back to 4.5-5% by year-end. Government reported inflation is a lagging indicator.

2.   COPPER: Dr. Copper continues to have my back on the long China position (CAF). If Chinese demand was going to go by the way of Sino Forest’s trees, Copper wouldn’t be breaking out above our intermediate-term TREND line ($4.20/lb) like this. Copper prices are ripping again this morn – up to $4.44/lb and +13% since mid-May. China’s share of the world’s copper consumption = 39%.

3.   BONDS: Finally, the short-end of the bond market (yields) has finally broken out above my immediate-term TRADE line of 0.42% on the 2-year. Can this hold? If the unemployment print is what the market thinks it’s going to be (better), it will. We’ve sold our long-term bond position (TLT) this week and prefer A) being short short-term bonds (SHY) and B) long a US Treasury Flattener (FLAT) provided that the unemployment # is better.

 

Got real-time synthesis of Global Macro data?

  1. SOUTH KOREA: finally showed a slowdown in the rate of inflation of its PPI (Producer Price Index) at +6.2% year-over-year in June. That inflation growth rate was in-line with May’s report and this is bullish, on the margin, for South Korea’s stock market (EWY).
  2. AUSTRALIA: unemployment remained unchanged month-over-month in June at 4.9% and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Chief, Glenn Stevens, should be commended for having the spine to raise interest rates for the legions of Australian savers who enjoy a rate-of-return on their fixed income savings accounts and, at the same time, have jobs (La Bernank, take notes).
  3. BRAZIL: Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for the month of June was up sequentially to +6.71% versus +6.55% in May and this should serve as a stiff reminder that inflation can still slow growth. The Brazilian stock market has been one of the world’s dogs this week and the Bovespa remains at the bottom of the world’s stock market league tables at down -10.2% YTD.

All the while the more newsy headlines about Pig Paper in Europe and the Audacity of Hope (Obama) on the US Employment front remain center stage. This shouldn’t be a conceptual surprise to anyone. Both American and Western European stock markets are effectively whipping people around like any Fiat Fool Bingo machine should. You can either manage risk around these trading ranges, or you can’t.

 

On the aroma of Le Papier de Pepe La Pew in Europe:

  1. SPAIN: issued another 1.5B Euros in 2016 vintage Eurocrat Bonds this morning at a yield of 4.87% versus 4.54% at the last auction. Higher-bond yields are not a surprise, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t bad.
  2. ITALY: bond yields on Italian 10-year paper are shooting up to 9-year highs this morning (up +10 basis points day-over-day at 5.27%) and one might argue that old Silvio and the boys have a bigger pending problem than hot-tub extra-curriculars revealed. Stay tuned.
  3. GREECE: oh, yes. They still have people there and they are quite bitter about the formation of their sovereign bond market’s chart resembling the back side of a giraffe’s behind – high and stinky.

Stinky paper is as stinky does, and I guess Einstein would agree that being long the stuff with less stench this morning is simply a matter of relativity. Earlier in the week (when stocks were for sale) I moved my asset allocation to Global Equities to a YTD high (27%) and cut my allocation to Fixed Income from 33% to 18%. I’m not sure if I hit any Home Tweets this week; but I didn’t strike out either.

 

My immediate-term support and resistance ranges for Oil, China’s Shanghai Composite, and the SP500 are now $95.21-100.07, 2726-2859, and 1316-1371, respectively.

 

Have a great weekend and best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

Home Tweets - Chart of the Day

Home Tweets - Virtual Portfolio



Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.64%
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