12/11/23 08:57 AM EST

More People Taking On 2 Jobs

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today’s Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha. If you’re interested in learning more about the Hedgeye-Tier 1 Alpha partnership, there’s more information here.

Today’s bonus chart depicts a rising trend in the number of individuals holding multiple jobs, with their primary job being full-time and the secondary job part-time. This increase, particularly sharp in recent years, suggests a growing need for additional income sources, which could be symptomatic of broader economic pressures on the average worker. While this may appear a disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street, stocks don't care whether your spending comes from a first or second job. And credit cheers your enthusiasm for responsibility.

The notorious Birth/Death adjustment model, while showing modest impact on November's report due to seasonality adjustments, has continued to deliver a steady 100K net jobs a month. These figures alone may paint an overly rosy picture of the employment situation. It's hard to speak "historically" about an index with less than 30 years of implementation and at least three major revisions to methodology, but history suggests caution once the Birth/Death adjustments account for over half of the net job creation. Recession incoming (or here once revisions are considered).

The reality, as shown by the rise in multiple jobholders, suggests that even with job creation, the quality and remuneration of these jobs may not be sufficient for individuals to meet their financial needs with a single source of income. This is especially true if the new jobs are not paying enough to keep pace with the cost of living or to allow for savings. Thus, workers turn to secondary part-time jobs to bridge the gap, a scenario not typically captured in the optimistic glow of Wall Street's metrics.

In essence, the burgeoning trend of holding multiple jobs reflects a Main Street making ends meet and compensating for stagnant wages or insufficient hours at their primary job. It's a stark reminder that while market indices can reach new heights, the underlying economic foundation for many can remain fragile and strained. Main Street is not living the same American Dream that Wall Street is currently.

Learn more about the Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha.