11/16/23 09:01 AM EST

New Business Applications Sending Mixed Messages

Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today’s Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha. If you’re interested in learning more about the Hedgeye-Tier 1 Alpha partnership, there’s more information here.

Today's featured chart showcases the latest figures on new business applications, specifically tracking requests for Employer Identification Numbers. October 2023 saw 472,993 applications, a count that mirrors the previous month of September 2023. But that's not the core narrative.

The post-pandemic boom in applications was expected, with numerous Americans transitioning to self-employment or gig work amid layoffs. By January 2023, self-employed individuals in the U.S. numbered 9.94 million. Approximately 16% of Americans have leveraged online gig platforms for income, making up 16.4% of the workforce, or an estimated 25-30 million gig workers. As society reopened, application rates dipped but have surged again over the past year.

Recent trends indicate a persistent low in new unemployment claims, yet continuing claims remain elevated, suggesting people are not replacing lost jobs easily. It appears that a significant number of white-collar professionals are shifting to contract work, likely fueling this uptick in business applications. Notably, the bulk of these new applications are emerging from the Northeast, in contrast to a deceleration in other regions. A link to the full Census Bureau report will provide deeper insights into this phenomenon.

Learn more about the Market Situation Report written by Tier 1 Alpha.