Next week, court proceedings will be held in Colorado and Minnesota with potentially enormous consequences for the 2024 election. These courts will address whether former President Donald Trump is disqualified from serving as president under the Fourteenth Amendment of the Constitution.
Disqualification of Donald Trump would torpedo the consensus view of political pundits that he is the likely Republican nominee for the White House and create a wide-open race for the Republican nomination. A Donald Trump ouster could have spillover effects on President Joe Biden's presumptive Democratic nomination. A change at the top of the Republican ticket could also have ripple effects on Congressional races.
Of course, adjustments in election outcome expectations would foster speculation about major policy shifts in 2025, including the extension of the 2017 tax cuts, financial regulation, antitrust enforcement priorities, and other substantive areas.
On Monday, a Colorado trial court will begin a one-week proceeding to determine whether Trump should be excluded from the Colorado ballot. Under the Fourteenth Amendment, a former officer of the United States cannot hold federal office if he engaged in insurrection against the Constitution. The Colorado court (Judge Sarah Wallace) will consider whether Trump is subject to the Fourteenth Amendment restrictions and whether his alleged conduct to obstruct the transfer of power to President Biden or encourage the Capitol riot of January 6, 2021 supports a finding of insurrection that would result in disqualification. The court order itemizing issues for trial can be accessed here.
We previously analyzed the strength of the Fourteenth Amendment case against Donald Trump (click here) and separately discussed the decisive legal issues in the case and the political fallout from a court ruling to disqualify Trump. To access the replay of the call, click here.
The Minnesota case will be argued next Thursday (November 2) in the State Supreme Court. This is probably the more critical case to watch because the appeal would go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court where the dispute inevitably must be resolved. The state cases, however, need to move on expedited tracks because ballots for early 2024 primaries must be printed in January. Similar Fourteenth Amendment cases in other states are likely.
Unlike the criminal and civil fraud cases against Donald Trump, the Fourteenth Amendment risk to Donald Trump's candidacy has generated limited media attention and public interest. The legal threat to Trump's candidacy, however, and the potential Republican free-for-all it could unleash are now ready for prime time.
