Join our Washington chief J.T. Taylor and Hedgeye's geopolitical advisor Col. Jeffrey McCausland as they focus on the escalating war between Israel and Hamas now embroiling the Middle East. The pair will also cover the impact of the conflict on Ukraine as well as where military aid stands for Israel and Ukraine in light of the chaos on Capitol Hill. Time permitting, they'll cover diplomatic developments in China and where we see defense spending headed with the threat of a government shutdown continuing to loom large over Washington.
***Please submit your questions in advance***
toDAY, OCTOBER 11, 2023 AT 10:00 AM
CLICK HERE for event details (includes video and materials link).
ON THE SENATE FLOOR: The Senate is in recess this week. Next week, the chamber will resume consideration of a minibus that packages three FY 2024 appropriations bills – Agriculture/FDA, Military Construction/Veterans Affairs, and Transportation/HUD. Prior to the recess, floor votes were blocked by Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI), but he has now agreed that the Senate can move forward. In return, Johnson received assurances from the Majority Leader that the Senate would vote on a bill by Senator James Lankford (R-OK) that would automatically enact a 14-day Continuing Resolution (CR) every two weeks until appropriations are enacted.
The Prevent Government Shutdowns Act also requires “that if appropriations work is not done on time, all Members of Congress, staff, and the Office of Management and Budget must stay in Washington, D.C., and work until the spending bills are completed,” according to Senator Lankford. Lankford first introduced the bill in 2019 with Senator Maggie Hassan (D-NH).
IN THE HOUSE: The House is not in session, but Republicans are in town to select their nominee for Speaker. A candidate forum was held last night with the two announced candidates for the speakership – Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH).
Republican conference rules provide that a candidate needs the support of only a majority of the conference to be the party’s nominee for Speaker. In the House, there are currently 221 Republicans, so a candidate would need 111 votes to be nominated. However, when the full House votes to choose the Speaker, 217 is the magic number to be elected if all Members are present and voting. [There are currently two vacancies caused by the resignations of Reps. Chris Stewart (R-UT) and David Cicilline (D-RI).] If all 212 House Democrats vote for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and if no Republicans vote “present,” the Republican nominee cannot lose more than four votes to garner a majority and secure the speakership. Recognizing this, some Republicans are advocating for a change in their internal conference rules so that the nominee would have to win 217 votes, the number needed to prevail on the House floor, not just the 111 that constitutes a majority of the conference.
Republicans are currently planning to meet today to select their Speaker nominee. It’s not yet clear how a vote in the Republican conference might play out, a situation further muddled by the vows of several Republicans to vote only for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. It’s also unclear whether the Republican conference will approve a change in rules to hike the threshold for nomination from 111 to 217. Jordan and his supporters favor the rules change, while Scalise and his supporters oppose it. Given the various uncertainties surrounding the Speaker’s race, we predict that it will take more than one day for Republicans to choose their nominee. We don't rule out the interim 'caretaker' Speaker, currently, Patrick McHenry (R-NC), being drafted to control the gavel for a yet-to-be-determined length of time.
