Texas on-premise alcohol beverage tax receipts (BUD)
Texas reports its alcoholic beverages sales tax receipts monthly. In September, alcoholic beverage receipts increased 4.0%, accelerating from 1.7% in August. The CPI for alcoholic beverages away from home rose 6.0% in August. Together, the tax receipts and CPI imply a significant decline in units in the past five months in Texas.
Beer Distributors Index (TAP, BUD, SAM, STZ)
The National Beer Wholesalers Association’s (NBWA) Beer Purchasers Index (BPI) remained flat both sequentially and YOY in September at 45. The BPI is a diffusion index where a reading above 50 denotes expansion in volumes while below 50 indicates contraction.
- Imports decreased to 62 in September from 73 in August and 61 in the prior year.
- Below premium was 42, lower than the prior year of 47 and 52 in August.
- Premium lights were flat YOY at 47 and below the 58 in August.
- Premium regular increased to 40 in September from 36 in the prior year and 48 in August.
- Craft beer remained in contraction at 27, little improved from 26 in the prior year and well below 42 in August.
- FMBs & hard seltzer’s reading was 28 in September, falling from 33 in August but improving from 24 in the prior year.
The at-risk inventory measure ticked up one point to 53 in September as slower sales trends are leading to higher inventory levels. Constellation Brands has been one of the beneficiaries of Bud Light’s lost share. Molson Coors has been the other beneficiary, with Coors Light and Miller Lite offsetting the weakness of Bud Light to drive Premium Lights higher. Molson Coors shares stand to gain from the investor day being held today if management can make the case for keeping the easiest share gains it has ever had.
Installment plan groceries (WMT)
According to PYMNTS, a data and analysis company, 60% of consumers have used some sort of installment plan in the past 12 months. That includes 45% using a credit card installment plan, 37% using merchant or store card plans, and 37% using a “Buy Now Pay Later” plan. 34% of those who had used an installment plan have purchased groceries on an installment plan. 20% of surveyed shoppers said they are now paying for groceries in installments. 41% of consumers who used an installment plan said they did so because there was little to no additional cost. The consumer is under strain, but spending habits are difficult to change.
