TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 9, 2011
As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or -1.73% downside to 1299 and 0.92% upside to 1334.
MACRO DATA POINTS:
- 10 a.m.: Wholesale Inventories, est. 0.9%, prior 1.0%
- 10:30 a.m.: DoE Inventories
- 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $21b 10-yr notes reopening
- 1:30: p.m.: Geithner testifies at House appropriations subcommittee
- 3 p.m.: USDA Broiler eggs set
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Senate to vote on $61b budget-cutting measure passed last month by Republican House
- Arab League may call this week for a no-fly zone to shield civilians and rebels from further
- Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard to address a joint session of Congress
- Nasdaq predicts at least 45 Chinese companies will list in U.S. this year, topping last year’s record
PERFORMANCE:
For the third day we have 7 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND. The two sectors broken on TREND are Technology and Materials.
- One day: Dow +1.03%, S&P +0.89%, Nasdaq +0.73%, Russell 2000 +1.53%
- Month-to-date: Dow (0.10%), S&P (0.41%), Nasdaq (0.59%), Russell +0.15%
- Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +5.50%, S&P +5.10%, Nasdaq +4.26%, Russell +5.23%
- Sector Performance: Financials +2.19%, Industrials +1.56%, Materials +1.15%, Utilities +1.12%, Consumer Spls +0.88%, Consumer Disc +0.80%, Healthcare +0.55%, Tech +0.83%, Energy (0.82%)
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
- ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1558 (+3172)
- VOLUME: NYSE 1002.67 (-3.18%)
- VIX: 19.82 -4.07% YTD PERFORMANCE: +11.66%
- SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.55 from 2.28 (-32.09%)
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
Treasuries were weaker with the rally in stocks, supply concessions and according to the WSJ
- TED SPREAD: 21.11 +0.609 (2.969%)
- 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.11%
- 10-Year: 3.56 from 3.51
- YIELD CURVE: 2.83 from 2.81
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:
- CRB: 361.09 -0.50% YTD: +8.50%
- Oil: 105.02 -0.40%; YTD: +12.98% (trading -0.08% in the AM)
- COPPER: 433.85 +0.27%; YTD: -1.79% (trading +0.45% in the AM)
- GOLD: 1,427.95 -0.28%; YTD: +0.83% (trading +0.19% in the AM)
COMMODITY HEADLINES:
- Palm Oil Seen Advancing 12% on Shortages as Record Food Prices Roil States
- China's Demand for New Zealand Milk Products Surges Fivefold Since 2008
- Oil Falls a Second Day on OPEC Supply Speculation, Rising U.S. Stockpiles
- Copper Climbs in London Before German Industrial Production
- Wheat Climbs as Dry Weather Conditions Threaten China Crop; Soybeans Fall
- Gold Advances to $1,431.90 an Ounce in London Trading, Erasing a Decline
- World Soybean Surplus May Swell on South American Harvests, Analysts Say
- K+S Raises Potash Price for a Fifth Time on Agricultural-Product Inflation
- Asian Coking-Coal Contracts May Rise 44% to Record After Queensland Rains
- Aluminum Fee to Japanese Buyers Halts One-Year Drop as Demand Recovers
CURRENCIES:
- EURO: 1.3909 -0.40% (trading -0.20% in the AM)
- DOLLAR: 76.798 +0.39% (trading +0.11% in the AM)
EUROPEAN MARKETS:
- FTSE 100: (0.28%); DAX: +0.44%; CAC 40: +0.10% (as of 04:58 ET)
- European markets trade mixed initially benefiting from a modest decline in oil prices and constructive EPS results and despite disappointing results from Texas Instruments (TXN) overnight.
- Portuguese 10-year bonds fell for a third day, pushing the yield as high as 7.70% (the most since at least 1997.)
- The equivalent-maturity Italian yield climbed to 5% for the first time since November 2008.
- The euro depreciated against all but two of its 16 most-traded peers.
ASIAN MARKTES:
- Nikkei +0.6%; Hang Seng +0.4%; Shanghai Composite +0.1%
- Markets were mixed today, getting support from a pullback in oil prices.
- Cathay Pacific Orders 25 Airbus, Boeing Planes After Annual Profit Triples
- China May Deflect Geithner Pressure by Reporting Smaller February Surplus
- Thailand Raises Key Rate a Second Time This Year as Asia Fights Inflation
Howard Penney
Managing Director
