THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

03/09/11 08:42AM EST

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP - March 9, 2011

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 35 points or -1.73% downside to 1299 and 0.92% upside to 1334. 

MACRO DATA POINTS:

  • 10 a.m.: Wholesale Inventories, est. 0.9%, prior 1.0%
  • 10:30 a.m.: DoE Inventories
  • 1 p.m.: U.S. to sell $21b 10-yr notes reopening
  • 1:30: p.m.: Geithner testifies at House appropriations subcommittee
  • 3 p.m.: USDA Broiler eggs set    

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Senate to vote on $61b budget-cutting measure passed last month by Republican House
  • Arab League may call this week for a no-fly zone to shield civilians and rebels from further
  • Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard to address a joint session of Congress
  • Nasdaq predicts at least 45 Chinese companies will list in U.S. this year, topping last year’s record  

PERFORMANCE:


For the third day we have 7 of 9 sectors positive on TRADE and 9 of 9 sectors positive on TREND.  The two sectors broken on TREND are Technology and Materials. 

  • One day: Dow +1.03%, S&P +0.89%, Nasdaq +0.73%, Russell 2000 +1.53%
  • Month-to-date: Dow (0.10%), S&P (0.41%), Nasdaq (0.59%), Russell +0.15%
  • Quarter/Year-to-date: Dow +5.50%, S&P +5.10%, Nasdaq +4.26%, Russell +5.23%
  • Sector Performance: Financials +2.19%, Industrials +1.56%, Materials +1.15%, Utilities +1.12%, Consumer Spls +0.88%, Consumer Disc +0.80%, Healthcare +0.55%, Tech +0.83%, Energy (0.82%)

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: 1558 (+3172)  
  • VOLUME: NYSE 1002.67 (-3.18%)
  • VIX:  19.82 -4.07% YTD PERFORMANCE: +11.66%
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO: 1.55 from 2.28 (-32.09%)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:


Treasuries were weaker with the rally in stocks, supply concessions and according to the WSJ

  • TED SPREAD: 21.11 +0.609 (2.969%)
  • 3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD: 0.11%  
  • 10-Year: 3.56 from 3.51
  • YIELD CURVE: 2.83 from 2.81

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 361.09 -0.50% YTD: +8.50%  
  • Oil: 105.02 -0.40%; YTD: +12.98% (trading -0.08% in the AM)
  • COPPER: 433.85 +0.27%; YTD: -1.79% (trading +0.45% in the AM)  
  • GOLD: 1,427.95 -0.28%; YTD: +0.83% (trading +0.19% in the AM)  

COMMODITY HEADLINES:

  • Palm Oil Seen Advancing 12% on Shortages as Record Food Prices Roil States
  • China's Demand for New Zealand Milk Products Surges Fivefold Since 2008
  • Oil Falls a Second Day on OPEC Supply Speculation, Rising U.S. Stockpiles
  • Copper Climbs in London Before German Industrial Production
  • Wheat Climbs as Dry Weather Conditions Threaten China Crop; Soybeans Fall
  • Gold Advances to $1,431.90 an Ounce in London Trading, Erasing a Decline
  • World Soybean Surplus May Swell on South American Harvests, Analysts Say
  • K+S Raises Potash Price for a Fifth Time on Agricultural-Product Inflation
  • Asian Coking-Coal Contracts May Rise 44% to Record After Queensland Rains
  • Aluminum Fee to Japanese Buyers Halts One-Year Drop as Demand Recovers

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3909 -0.40% (trading -0.20% in the AM)
  • DOLLAR: 76.798 +0.39% (trading +0.11% in the AM) 

EUROPEAN MARKETS:

  • FTSE 100: (0.28%); DAX: +0.44%; CAC 40: +0.10% (as of 04:58 ET)
  • European markets trade mixed initially benefiting from a modest decline in oil prices and constructive EPS results and despite disappointing results from Texas Instruments (TXN) overnight.
  • Portuguese 10-year bonds fell for a third day, pushing the yield as high as 7.70% (the most since at least 1997.)
  • The equivalent-maturity Italian yield climbed to 5% for the first time since November 2008.
  • The euro depreciated against all but two of its 16 most-traded peers.

ASIAN MARKTES:

  • Nikkei +0.6%; Hang Seng +0.4%; Shanghai Composite +0.1%
  • Markets were mixed today, getting support from a pullback in oil prices.
  • Cathay Pacific Orders 25 Airbus, Boeing Planes After Annual Profit Triples
  • China May Deflect Geithner Pressure by Reporting Smaller February Surplus
  • Thailand Raises Key Rate a Second Time This Year as Asia Fights Inflation

Howard Penney

Managing Director

© 2024 Hedgeye Risk Management, LLC. The information contained herein is the property of Hedgeye, which reserves all rights thereto. Redistribution of any part of this information is prohibited without the express written consent of Hedgeye. Hedgeye is not responsible for any errors in or omissions to this information, or for any consequences that may result from the use of this information.