[COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | Commodities / 10yr / QQQ

FROM THE DESK

Long China (up another +0.9% overnight to +9.1% in the last month) vs. Short Europe (DAX -6.5% in the last month) = alpha…

1. COMMODITIES – major #Quad4 DISINFLATION and DEFLATION (depending on what Commodity price you pick) finally found its way to Oil & Gas (and related Equities) with the CRB Commodities Index down -10% in a straight line and our Bearish @Hedgeye TREND views on everything from Copper to Corn and Lumber playing out
2. UST 10yr Yield – definitely traded down directionally with A) aforementioned #Quad4 DISINFLATION and B) hope that Powell is going to be less hawkish. Hope, however, is not a risk management #process (reported headline INFLATION is going to remain hot in the upcoming CPI print) and all the 10yr did was trade towards the LOW-end of my Risk Range
3. NASDAQ – Macro Tourists still think you “buy Tech when Bond Yields fall.” Nope. Not when in #Quad4 and both REV and PROFITS are #slowing at their fastest pace. So focus on re-shorting PROFITLESS Tech or Storytelling Stocks here as weak-handed-hedgies cover at bear market lower-highs

OUR LEVELS

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.02-3.54%

KM  

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer