Hedgeye - [COMPLIMENTARY] Top 3 Things | Commodities / 10yr / QQQ

Editor's Note: Below is a complimentary "Top 3 Things" note from Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough. This note goes out to Macro Show subscribers every morning before the 9am show. (Institutional investors receive it between 6:30-7am. To get on Keith's institutional distribution list email .) Today's Early Look will be sent separately.

FROM THE DESK

Long China (up another +0.9% overnight to +9.1% in the last month) vs. Short Europe (DAX -6.5% in the last month) = alpha…

COMMODITIES – major #Quad4 DISINFLATION and DEFLATION (depending on what Commodity price you pick) finally found its way to Oil & Gas (and related Equities) with the CRB Commodities Index down -10% in a straight line and our Bearish @Hedgeye TREND views on everything from Copper to Corn and Lumber playing out
UST 10yr Yield – definitely traded down directionally with A) aforementioned #Quad4 DISINFLATION and B) hope that Powell is going to be less hawkish. Hope, however, is not a risk management #process (reported headline INFLATION is going to remain hot in the upcoming CPI print) and all the 10yr did was trade towards the LOW-end of my Risk Range
NASDAQ – Macro Tourists still think you “buy Tech when Bond Yields fall.” Nope. Not when in #Quad4 and both REV and PROFITS are #slowing at their fastest pace. So focus on re-shorting PROFITLESS Tech or Storytelling Stocks here as weak-handed-hedgies cover at bear market lower-highs

OUR LEVELS

Immediate-term @Hedgeye Risk Ranges: SP500 = 3; UST 10yr Yield = 3.02-3.54%

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer