Good afternoon, As a quick reminder, we'll be discussing the update live at 2:00 ET during our House Call Q&A (link to video and presentation materials once available). As always, email us if you have any questions on any of the data or our takeaways - .
KEY CALL OUT
CLICK HERE for the full weekly update - our Sector Distillation deck.
There was more movement this past week as the flow to the short portfolio (Micro Quad 4) ticked up. Most of our Position Monitor stocks stayed put, but BDX slipped to Micro Quad 4 from a long position in Micro Quad 3, so we'll have to review that thesis. TXG fell out of the bins due to the correlation of the estimate trend to the stock price (it was a smaller short allocation in Micro Quad 1, so this is "covered" in the model and we wait to see if/when it comes back). The sales Micro Quad forecasts for Best Idea Shorts EXAS and TDOC have held up, and those stocks remain smaller and larger short allocations in the Model Portfolio, respectively. We also continue to monitor HCA for a positive shift in estimate momentum.
The Estimate Trend charts continue to tell the same story (July upturn for estimate momentum across our universe is in the cards, but the forecast is "flattening" out), and the following stocks are worth calling out if you're following along or benchmarking positions:
New Longs: MASI, MCK, THC
New Shorts: BDX, LH, QDEL, PCRX, ABT, IDXX.
Micro Quad 4 has the most new activity this week, so here's that slide, which includes the forecast window for each stock:
MICROQUADS*
If you have questions about the #MicroQuad process and how we're using it, please try to find ~13 minutes to watch the beginning of our March 24, 2022 call replay: Quad, Factor, Fundamentals, or How to Find A Story Worth Telling - CLICK HERE for event details (includes video and materials link, as well as an overview of our Factor Scoring work). Stocks in bold are new to the bin this week.
ESTIMATE REVISION TRENDS
Position Monitor Stocks**
Model Portfolio Performance
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any feedback or inquiries.
Best,
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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William McMahon
Analyst
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Justin Venneri
Director, Primary Research
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*Please note, not all Position Monitor names make it into the MicroQuad output - most likely due to a lack of sufficient historical trading and estimate data.
**We may show stocks that we have data for but the correlation fails to meet the criteria for MQ bin inclusion week-to-week.
