It is hard to see how it ends well. The DVA 1Q report tomorrow may be just fine. Reimbursement increases are weighted to 1H in every year as Medicare FFS updates and Medicare Advantage contracts renew. However, mortality, which negatively impacts census and the number of treatments, should increase and be more like 3Q than 4Q 2021. FMS' report today demonstrated that effect.
Other drivers like treatments per patient, vaccine administration and Medicare FFS payment updates are not particularly encouraging as well. Worse, mortality has a long tail as future dialysis patients are vulnerable to COVID and a number of negative health trends that have accompany the pandemic. Defending against all these headwinds are stock repurchases and management of the cost line that might have long term consequences for census.
You can access the slides and replay here. Audio only replay is here. Slides only are here.
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Timestamps: 0:00- 2:22 - Introduction and Overview 2:23 - 7:27- Declining dialysis-treated ESRD now and in the near future 7:27 - 13:24 - DVA's mortality and role of treatment per patient 13:24 - 21:18 - Forecasting prevalence in 2022, increased transplantation, diabetes deaths 21:18 - 28:35 - External revenue from vaccine administration and Medicare payment updates; modeling net income 28:35 - 32:14 - Role of Medicare Advantage on preventive care and alternative models 32:14 - 34:16 - Share repurchases were a short term plan with little innovation to prepare for new approaches and policy requirements 34:16 - 36: 44 - Federal responses |
Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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