Good afternoon, As always, email us if you have any questions on any of the data or our takeaways - .
KEY CALL OUT
CLICK HERE for the full weekly update - our Sector Distillation deck.
There was more movement this past week, but core Micro Quad and Position Monitor shorts stayed put. For example, the sales Micro Quad forecasts for EXAS and TDOC have held up, and those stocks remain smaller and larger short allocations in the Model Portfolio following 1Q22 earnings, and we remain patient with both.
We've noticed the depth of AMN's Micro Quad 3 position, and if that should slip to Quad 4, which would not be surprising given our sentiment shift on the stock, it'd be an incredibly deep MQ4 position (we will continue to monitor the factors here, which include rising short interest, a ~$4B market cap, a low EV/Sales, etc.).
The Estimate Trend charts continue to tell the same story (July upturn for estimate momentum across our universe is in the cards), and the following stocks are worth calling out if you're following along or benchmarking positions. Note, it's interesting to see two medical device companies flip from smaller shorts to Longs in the Model Portfolio this week:
New Longs: BSX and TFX (larger Long allocations in Micro Quad 2 this week vs. smaller short allocations in Micro Quad 1 last week)
New Shorts: ALGN (smaller Short allocation in Micro Quad 1, but ALGN was a Micro Quad 2 Long), and MEDP and ZTS flipped from smaller long allocations last week to full short positions this week.
Shorts with Reduced Allocation: MOH
Micro Quad 1 remains of interest, as several of our Position Monitor stocks sit in this smaller short allocation bucket, including TXG, which looks set to slip into Micro Quad 4 based on our data. HCA and EYE remain "stuck" here as well.
MICROQUADS*
If you have questions about the #MicroQuad process and how we're using it, please try to find ~13 minutes to watch the beginning of our March 24, 2022 call replay: Quad, Factor, Fundamentals, or How to Find A Story Worth Telling - CLICK HERE for event details (includes video and materials link, as well as an overview of our Factor Scoring work). Stocks in bold are new to the bin this week.
ESTIMATE REVISION TRENDS
Position Monitor Stocks**
Model Portfolio Performance
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any feedback or inquiries.
Best,
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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William McMahon
Analyst
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Justin Venneri
Director, Primary Research
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*Please note, not all Position Monitor names make it into the MicroQuad output - most likely due to a lack of sufficient historical trading and estimate data.
**We may show stocks that we have data for but the correlation fails to meet the criteria for MQ bin inclusion week-to-week.
