HEDGEYE
The Macro Show
User Guide
Dear Macro Show subscriber,
What if you could look over the shoulder of one of the world’s smartest hedge fund managers?
What if you could ask questions?
What if you could learn what they’re keeping a close eye on and what makes them tick?
There wasn’t anything like this for investors… until we created The Macro Show!
The Macro Show is our live daily, online video broadcast offering key market insights
and investing implications with viewer Q&A. Hosted each morning by former hedge
fund manager (Carlyle-Blue Wave Partners and Magnetar Capital) and Hedgeye CEO
Keith McCullough, The Macro Show provides unprecedented access to some of the
smartest investing minds and fulfills one of Hedgeye’s core missions:
Hedge fund-quality research for every day investors.
Getting Started: How To Use The Macro Show
How It Works
The Macro Show is live online weekday mornings at 9:00am ET. Each broadcast brings you our real-time global macro market analysis, tracking trends in stocks, commodities, currencies and interest rates across the globe.
Each morning, we explain the forces affecting the markets for some of the world’s largest institutional investors. Now you can watch in too - at the same time, in the same format as our big bank and hedge fund clients.
CLICK HERE
to read our entire “Macro Playbook.”
What You Get With The Macro Show
While the content of each episode shifts with the latest and most important macro
market trends, every episode of The Macro Show follows a similar format to get you
ready for the trading day ahead:
Top 3 Things
Distillation of the day’s most important market-moving developments.
The Grind
Systematic review of key market levels and commentary on critical capital market
issues and their implications.
Special Guests
Periodic appearances by Hedgeye analysts to discuss their sectors and stocks they
like (and ones to avoid).
Live Q&A
At the conclusion of each call, you are encouraged to ask us your market questions in our live, real-time online forum.
In thirty minutes or less, you will know everything you need to know to start your
risk-management morning.
Finally, if you happen to miss a live segment, you’ll always have access to each show’s replay on
our website.
If you have any questions whatsoever, please do not hesitate to email us at
support@hedgeye.com.
We look forward to working together!
Watch the video introduction:
About Hedgeye
Hedgeye Risk Management is an independent investment research and online
financial media company. Focused exclusively on generating and delivering
thoughtful investment ideas in a proven buy-side process, the firm combines
quantitative, bottom-up and macro analysis with an emphasis on timing. The
Hedgeye team features some of the most highly-regarded research analysts on
Wall Street, all with buy-side experience, covering Macro, Financials, Energy,
Healthcare, Retail, Gaming, Lodging & Leisure (GLL), Restaurants, Industrials,
Consumer Staples, Communications, Cannabis, Housing, Materials, Technology,
Demography and Washington policy analysis.
The Macro Show
User Guide
Invest like a Hedge Fund Manager
We know. You’re tired of Old Wall TV nonsense.
Turn it off!
Our mission from Day 1 was to create something that didn’t exist: Hedge fund quality research for everyday investors. The Macro Show is your window into the Hedgeye research process.
Hosted each morning before the market opens by former hedge fund manager and Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, The Macro Show brings you 30-minutes of the sharpest investing insights around.
To bring you quickly up to speed on our Macro process (and help turbocharge your own
investing process), we’ve produced an exclusive 14-minute video hosted by McCullough. In the video below, McCullough will walk you through everything from:
• How we model the top 50 economies around the globe
• How our quantitative risk range model helps investors buy low and sell high
• How we help investors beat Wall Street by tracking consensus positioning
We encourage you to watch this primer on our repeatable risk management process.
Understanding Hedgeye's Macro Process
Why We Created HedgeyeTV
Prior to founding Hedgeye Risk Management, CEO Keith McCullough built a successful track record as a hedge fund manager at the Carlyle-Blue Wave Partners hedge fund, Magnetar Capital, Falconhenge Partners, and Dawson-Herman Capital Management.
Keith had been a regular market guest on financial TV and radio for many years including CNN and Fox Business, as well as a contributor for CNBC and Bloomberg. Looking for a better way, we created HedgeyeTV which was featured in a Huffington Post story, "Meet The Man Who Wants To Build The ESPN Of Finance.”
The Macro Show is the flagship broadcast of HedgeyeTV. This interactive daily program is
designed to bring you a former hedge fund manager’s guide to what comes next in markets.
Simply put, sharp investors begin each morning with The Macro Show.
The Macro Show
User Guide
Improve My Risk Management
Effective risk management requires discipline and grit.
It’s not easy waking up every morning, digesting new global economic data and developments, and then determining how it will most likely impact the trillions of dollars coursing through global financial markets.
That’s where we come in.
The Macro Show is designed to give you unparalleled access to our Macro team (plus insight from our deep bench of 40+ research analysts).
1. We produce a special Macro Show slide packet for you each morning highlighting what to watch in the markets today.
2. Our team walks through the latest big picture market trends, providing additional insight and analysis.
3. We provide key quantitative daily trading ranges to help you navigate the markets over the days, weeks and months ahead.
4. Have a question? Ask our team directly during the show’s daily live Q&A segment.
There’s a lot more behind The Macro Show curtain. To get you up to speed really quick, here’s a primer on “the hallmark of our research process.”
The Hallmark of Our Research Process
Our Macro team tracks global economic data for the U.S. and the top 50 economies around the world. All told, the scope of our Macro research covers 90% of global GDP.
This daily grind captures data for these 50 countries and uses that to produce growth and inflation forecasts for each.
Why?
We find two factors to be most consequential for forecasting future financial market returns: economic growth and inflation. We track both on a year-over-year rate of change basis (i.e. 2nd derivative) to better understand the big picture.
Then, we ask the fundamental question: Are growth and inflation heating up or cooling down?
From there, we plug this data into a predictive tracking algorithm that produces growth and inflation forecasts for each economy.
With these forward-looking estimates our framework suggests four possible outcomes. Each is assigned a "quadrant" in our Growth, Inflation, Policy (GIP) model along with the typical government response as a result (neutral, hawkish, in-a-box or dovish):
• Growth accelerating, Inflation slowing (QUAD 1);
• Growth accelerating, Inflation accelerating (QUAD 2);
• Growth slowing, Inflation accelerating (QUAD 3);
• Growth slowing, Inflation slowing (QUAD 4)
After building this base of knowledge, we can now select what we like (and don’t like) based on our historical back-testing of the different asset classes that perform best in each of the four quadrants.
"In QUAD 1, for instance, where growth is accelerating and inflation is slowing, that has historically been really positive for both equity and credit data across all sectors of the U.S. economy,"
"Whereas when you think about QUAD 4, in which growth and inflation are slowing concomitantly, that has historically actually been quite negative for both equities and credit."
We encourage you to watch the video below, in which Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough digs into our Growth, Inflation, Policy (GIP) model in vivid detail. Our GIP model is one of the hallmarks of our fundamental research process.
This is just one important component of our Macro team’s research process and precisely the type of analysis we’ll discuss each morning on The Macro Show.
Sharp risk management begins each morning with The Macro Show.
Understanding How We Model the U.S. Economy
The Macro Show
User Guide
Hedgeye's Macro Playbook
Our goal is to give you a foundational understanding —start to
finish—of the basics of how we analyze financial markets and
identify compelling risks and opportunities. We believe it will
amplify your use of all of our investing research products and
tools.
This Macro Playbook explains our quantitative models – like our
proprietary risk ranges and GDP predictive tracking algorithm – as
well as how we select our top investing ideas (stocks, bonds or ETFs).
Our repeatable research process has been carefully crafted and
refined throughout our decade in the independent research business.
Armed with this framework, we are confident you will make better
investing decisions.
Click here
to read our Macro Playbook
The Macro Show
User Guide
Meet Our Research Team
We are obsessed with delivering superior investment ideas. You likely
know this by now.
Our hybrid investing approach combines:
- 1. proprietary quantitative analysis
- 2. bottom-up sector research
- 3. top-down macro research with an emphasis on duration.
The end result is an intelligent, high-octane suite of products that
draws on insights from over 40 research analysts. We cover everything
from Global Macro and Retail, to Energy, Restaurants and Washington
Policy research.
Our unique research team at Hedgeye is composed of some of the
most highly-regarded analysts in the industry. Our quantitative
models and fundamental research teams complement one another.
Here’s how.
1. QUANTITATIVE RISK RANGES
Our quantitative Risk Range model was developed by CEO Keith McCullough
during his years as a hedge fund manager.
This Risk Range model is utilized throughout the entire suite of
Hedgeye research products to augment our 40+ person research team’s
fundamental views. Think about it. All investors have some basket of
core investing ideas (stocks, bonds, ETFs or all of the above).
Identifying those investing ideas is tough enough, then you have to
deal with the uncertainty of markets.
When CEO Keith McCullough built his proprietary Risk Range model the
aim was simple: Create a quantitative risk management tool to help
investors actually
buy low and sell high.
The model uses three core inputs – price, volume and volatility – to
determine the likely daily trading range for any publicly-traded asset
class. These risk ranges are dynamic. They change as the data changes.
At its core, you sell at the top end of the range, and buy at the
low end.
Our team of 40+ fundamental research analysts pride themselves on
identifying non-consensus investing ideas. We understand that the
path from non-consensus investing idea to top-performer is far from
linear. The ultimate aim of our Risk Ranges model is to help investors
risk manage our analyst’s favorite investing ideas.
2. BOTTOM-UP SECTOR RESEARCH
Our investment research team is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut.
It is made up of research analysts with buy-side and sell-side
experience. Our policy research team in Washington D.C. is composed
of seasoned veterans with many decades of experience. They possess
high-level experience and contacts having worked in a variety of
influential positions over the years.
Our goal is simple. Since “Day One” more than ten years ago, our
focus has been to build the most thoughtful and thorough team on Wall
Street. We seek to translate our unique, combined knowledge into
successful investment opportunities for all of our subscribers—big
and small.
Our collective investment experience includes time at Carlyle
Blue-Wave, Ardsley Partners, Buckingham Research, Morgan Stanley,
Dawson-Herman Capital, Wells Fargo Securities, to name a few, while
our combined policy experience includes time at the U.S. Court of
Appeals, U.S. Energy Department, U.S. Office of Defense, U.S. Federal
Reserve, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and more.
3. TOP-DOWN MACRO RESEARCH
In addition to a deep bench of 19 fundamental equity and Washington
policy research teams, our Macro team measures and maps economic data
for the top 50 economies around the world, covering 90% of global GDP.
We run predictive tracking algorithms for both growth and inflation
for each of these economies to forecast the likely path for financial
markets.
Bottom Line: Our Macro team is focused on generating investable ideas
based on this research that combines their deep study of market
history, the tracking of Wall Street consensus positioning and the
volatility signals embedded in futures and options markets.
(We encourage you to dig deeper by reading our
“Macro Playbook.”
)
The combined knowledge of 1) proprietary quantitative analysis 2)
bottom-up sector research 3) top-down macro research makes your
Hedgeye subscription the best bang-for-your-investing-research-buck
out there.