The influential former White House economic advisor Dr. Pippa Malmgren tells us "love" is the greatest invention of all time. Malmgren is also worried about a painful "melt-up" in equity markets, since investors are 35% long cash and relatively short equities.

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Stock Market Alert: Bullish Complacency, Bearish Capitulation or Both?

After last week's Trump impeachment speculation sent domestic equity markets tumbling, the U.S. stock market has been up for three straight days. Near the all-time highs for U.S. stocks either bulls are exhibiting a serious amount of complacency or bears have capitulated... or both.

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VIDEO: Hedgeye Top 5 … ‘The Most Consensus Long Position In All of Macro Is…’

Check out our Top 5 Clips of the Day. This highlight reel features some of the best segments from The Macro Show today.

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The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model has an average intra-quarter tracking error since inception of 230bps. For the first quarter of 2017, the estimate fell by -293bps, from the model’s +3.38% estimate on 2/1 to +0.45%. Talk about having your head in the sand. How useful is that?

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A Year Later: What Happened to Hanesbrands Since Hedgeye’s McGough Issued His Epic Short

"If I’m right, this may prove to be the best short call of my 23-year career," Hedgeye Retail Sector Head Brian McGough wrote recently about his research call on Hanesbrands (HBI). Here's what's happened to Hanesbrands shares one year later since making his epic short call.

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Trump To Propose $640 Billion For The Pentagon's Budget (Signs $110B Arms Deal With Saudis)

Good three days for defense primes: POTUS signed $110B Saudi arms deal on Saturday and will propose $640B Pentagon budget on Tuesday.

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The Hedgeye Housing Team, led by Josh Steiner and Christian Drake, will be hosting a conference call today, May 22nd at 1:00pm ET to update their outlook for Housing in 2017.

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2 Trades That Wall Street Consensus Got (Really) Wrong

Wall Street consensus has been capitulating on short positions in the Euro and British Pound for the past three to six months.

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Cartoon of the Day: Chicken Little

Earlier this week, Wall Street might as well have been running around like Chicken Little shouting "the sky is failing," as betting odds of Trump impeachment rose. The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all fell more than 1.7% on Wednesday only to largely recover those losses on Thursday and Friday.

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With earnings season almost done, if the current earnings trend holds, this would mark the best year-over-year growth since 2011 for the three major stock market indices.

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Cartoon of the Day: FRAGILE

Wall Street's three main stock indexes all fell more than 1.7% yesterday on rising bookie odds of President Trump's impeachment.

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Ralph Lauren Is A #ValueTrap

"This Ralph Lauren (RL) CEO announcement is laughable," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Seriously… I laughed. Let me get this straight… Fire the best and most innovative CEO in Retail, and hire a new CEO from a company that no longer has it in its DNA to grow (P&G)."

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"Conservative hardliner Ebrahim Raisi has made it a much closer election," writes Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle. "For oil markets, a Raisi win would pose high risk to the Iran nuclear deal that lifted sanctions and added about 1 million barrels a day (b/d) of Iranian crude exports to global markets."

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The Running of the Bulls’ Mouths

"It will all come down to a race against time, a test of reality’s resolve to refute recession," writes former Fed advisor Danielle DiMartino Booth.

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McCullough: Why Are Stocks Are Oversold? It's Math...

"I’ll happily invest in US #GrowthAccelerating exposures (again) while the political class causes consensus to sell them to us," writes Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

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The U.S. economy is accelerating. Case in point, US Industrial Production accelerated to 2.2% year-over-year, a 28-month high.

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The Credit Tightening Cycle Has Begun

"The supply and demand for credit are now shrinking," writes Peter Atwater of Financial Insyghts. "Not only will this be trouble for economic growth ahead, but for corporations with supersized debt maturities it is going to turn their business into a garage sale."

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The Chinese Economy is Slowing... Blame the People's Bank of China

The latest deterioration in Chinese economic data shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Last year's Chinese growth was perpetuated by a tremendous amounts of unsustainable stimulus that's now being unwound.

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"OPEC believes a 9-month extension into 2018 will provide it with a sentiment surplus and so far the market likes the move," writes Energy Policy analyst Joe McMonigle. "Therefore, the OPEC component (1.2 M b/d) of the deal is assured."

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