Optometrist Office Visits Trend Higher in May
The CDC has been publishing mobility data on its COVID-19 Data Tracking page since the start of the pandemic. The high-level data haven't been very interesting for some time because several of the trends recovered in 2H20. However, a few steps closer to the source, we can track mobility trends all the way down to NAICS code. While the number of NAICS codes available in Health Care is limited, there is a series for customer traffic into 'Offices of Optometrists' which we found a useful indicator for National Vision (EYE). Because vision care was hard hit and maintains what we think is a substantial backlog, this trend is a good marker for our pent-up demand and #reopen thesis which supports EYE and other Position Monitor longs like Fortress/ATI (FAII) and GoodRx (GDRX). GDRX made some additional comments about the uptick in demand coming out of 1Q21 at an investor conference yesterday, and we think the magnitude of pent-up demand is larger and longer-lasting than most people believe. We are likely weeks into what will be several quarters of incremental volume. The QTD Optometrist Office trend is up 25% over 1Q21 and breaking into pre-pandemic levels.
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Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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