Trendspotting: German Births Rise Despite Covid-19

NewsWire: 5/19/21

• Germany bucked the pandemic baby bust trend, with the number of births rising in December and January. Births were up 0.8% YoY—a small but notable difference considering how sharply they fell in neighboring countries. (Reuters)
• NH: Over the last few months, we have reported on pandemic baby busts ranging from the US to China to most of Europe. (See “2020 Demography Review: US” and “Registered Births in China Tumbled 15% in 2020.”) But new numbers from Germany show that Europe’s largest economy experienced a rise in births nine months after their initial lockdown. 
• In December and January, births in Germany climbed by +0.8% YoY. That is starkly different from other major European countries. In those same two months, births in France were down -7% and -13% YoY. In Spain, both months declined -20% YoY. And in Italy, they fell by -21.6% YoY in December. (See “Europe’s Ongoing Birth Decline.”)
• How did Germany buck the trend? For the last ten years, Germany has been one of the few European countries to raise its total fertility rate. This is partially due to the government implementing new family-friendly policies like mandatory family leave and funding for pre-K schooling. The influx of young refugees from Syria in 2016 has additionally helped boost births. 
• Also, Germany's economy was hit relatively less harshly by the pandemic. The country only experienced an estimated -5.0% 2020 GDP decline--versus -8.8% for Italy and -6.4% for the EU as a whole. And Kurzarbeit, a social insurance program, kept much of the population employed and receiving paychecks.
• The timetable may also have made a difference. Germany, unlike many other European countries, suffered remarkably few deaths in March and April, much fewer than it experienced last fall and winter. So it's possible that we may have to wait until the later months of 2021 before we see a big hit on births. We'll be sure to keep you updated when new data becomes available.