TCNNF acquires HRVSF
We are going to move TCNNF a few notches on the position monitor.
Yesterday the Board and CEO of TCNNF made a historic bet on the company's future in buying Harvest. The timing is curious to me on what could be the verge of a significant step forward in the legalization landscape. I'm assuming that the CEO of TCNNF was on some of the same calls that the CEO of CBRLF was, and his comments yesterday were the talk of progress. Why is she paying a premium for Harvest today? What about legalization and the potential impact of interstate commerce? We understand that there are billions of dollars sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy Cannabis assets, but this timing seems a bit off. That said the CEO, of TCNNF would know the timing much better than I.
The $2.1B price tag for Harvest implies a value of 14x 2022 EBITDA, with TCNNF trading around 10.5x 2022 EBITDA. The estimated proforma 2021E revenue is $1.2 Billion, making it one of the largest Cannabis companies. The combined adjusted EBITDA will make it the most profitable company. The estimated proforma (A)EBITDA for 2021E is $461M compared to Curaleaf's estimated EBITDA of $366 Million for the merged company. The deal will add new operations in AZ, MD, ND, NV, OH, and UT to Trulieve, a primarily Florida-based cannabis company. Trulieve had 92% of its resources located in Florida before the deal. Although the valuation Harvest was acquired at was quite rich, we believe this merger will create significant synergies over time, but we will not know that until 2022.
VFF Earnings
VFF stock got crushed after earnings were released as it fell 24.67%. The company had a 63% increase in YoY sales to $52.4 Million and an (A)EBITDA of $.4 Million, a 63% decrease YoY. This was mainly due to the historically low tomato prices, which caused its (A)EBITDA to go down 50% YoY. Produce makes up 67% of revenue, while cannabis makes up 33%. The cannabis business operated under the name Pure Sunfarms has been performing slightly better than their product sector. It had revenue of $17.4 Million and an adjusted EBITDA of $2.5 Million. Pure Sunfarms has been gaining market share in Canada and has low-cost popular brands. Pure Sunfarms is, however, primarily a flower company that does make up the majority of the Canadian cannabis market but has been declining in size.
We are hosting a call tomorrow on Canada sales trends and will have data on Pure Sunfarms. Time to be digging in in VFF.
Boris on Schumer and Legalization
The CEO of CURLF mentioned Senator Chuck Schumer's name three times in the March earnings call, and yesterday it was 12! Things are heating up!
Notable quotes for the earnings call (with BOLD for emphasis):
In late April, SAFE Banking Act passed the House with a high degree of bipartisanship and is now in the Senate. The bill will expand the cannabis industry access to banking and potentially include other stipulations such as removing 280E, safe harbor language for institutional investors, and the ability to uplist to major U.S. stock exchanges.
"Senate Majority Leader Schumer is moving ahead to introduce an all-inclusive federal cannabis reform, which goes beyond the SAFE Banking Act and which is expected to be released soon. Schumer has stated that he believes SAFE Banking would pass. However, because he thinks he has one shot at this with Republicans, he wants to introduce a broader bill to capture the full window of opportunity for meaningful cannabis legislative change. While the industry continues to pursue the SAFE Banking Act on its own, Schumer's more comprehensive cannabis legislation bill will achieve everything expected from SAFE Banking in terms of access to banks and capital markets and the removal of 280E and more."
Hedgeye: Schumer is trying to get it all done at once.
I will tell you that the MSOs are organized in Washington. We're working together through the USCC, and we recently tried to get the MSOs together on a very specific initiative around SAFE Banking. We're in the process right now of having separate calls. We've had several group calls. We now have separate calls. We're raising money to create a fund to continue our lobbying efforts in Washington. I think we've got one shot before the midterms. As soon as Schumer's law drops, we've got really one shot to get this through. And I want to make sure that the sector is very well prepared for it. So we're currently raising funds to make sure -- this is outside of the normal funds that we use to fund our efforts there. This is additional funds to make sure that we can try to get regulatory change in Washington.
Hedgeye: He specifically called out the MSO's working together. Are they working together for the interest of the cannabis industry and not the tobacco or alcohol industry?
As I said in my overall statements, Schumer believes that if he puts SAFE Banking, which surprised us a little bit, if he believes that it would pass if you put SAFE Banking to a vote in the Senate. But he wants to get much more than just SAFE Banking. He thinks he's got one shot at this with the Republicans. And so he's putting a much broader bill. The reason for the recent holdup we learned today is that Schumer is in discussions with the FDA about what their role would be in federal legalization. And so that's what's currently holding it up. But we do expect that law to drop sometime in May, at least that's what we've been told by his and Booker's and Wyden's people.
Hedgeye: This was the first time we have heard that the FDA might have a role in legalization, which could have a significant implication for interstate commerce.
"But we've told that it (the Schumer bill) should drop in May, and that gives us plenty of time. We've always been telling people; this is going to take some time. If it was SAFE Banking, we thought they could do it in 6 to 9 months. A more comprehensive bill, we think, is a year-end to the first quarter-type situation. It could happen faster. Many things are happening, but I would be a little more careful in predicting the speed at which this gets done. But listen, if he can actually get a more comprehensive bill done, that's actually better for the overall industry. We can probably wait for that."
Hedgeye: This going to be a long process, with still a chance before the mid-terms.
"And I think that there's no question that what the Senator really wants to make sure is that the business issues are also tied to some of the inequity issues that have happened, whether they be social justice or decriminalization or prison reform issues. These are all issues that he wants to be addressed in this law. So I don't think the law will get passed strictly on business issues. It will get passed with a mixture of some of these very, very important social justice issues together with the business issues."
Hedgeye: Exciting times to follow the cannabis industry.
