NewsWire: 5/11/21
- According to provisional estimates, the U.S. birthrate fell 4% in 2020. This was the sixth consecutive year of decline and marks yet another record low. (The New York Times)
- NH: The 2020 provisional birth data are in. And the findings were just as expected: The US total fertility rate fell for the sixth year in a row.
- The CDC estimates that the TFR fell from 1.71 in 2019 to 1.64 in 2020. That marks the lowest reading in history and is roughly in line with our estimate of 1.68. (See “2020 Demography Review: United States.”)
- Every age bracket under 40 experienced a decline in births. Teens (15-19) recorded a whopping -8.2% YoY drop. And Millennials in their early 30s experienced a -1.0% YoY drop. This marks the fourth year in a row that the 30-34 age bracket has declined and is further evidence that Millennials aren't just "putting off" having children.
- As we predicted, December births had the largest decrease of any month (-7.7% YoY). Remember, births affected by the first lockdowns would only show up in mid-December, nine months after March. Even deeper declines will likely follow in January and February. These months will reflect the early lockdowns to a fuller extent. (See “US Births Now in Free Fall.”)
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