Last week's employment releases were a disappointment to the White House but the problem may be transitory. While ADP reported health care employment that appears to be accelerating, the BLS release was more lackluster. The difference may be explained by what ADP refers to as the "August" effect when survey responses are depressed due to summer vacations. As the JOLTS data clearly demonstrates there are a lot of job openings in health care which may mean a BLS survey response is not a priority. If we are right, the May print has the potential to be a big one, assuming providers can find someone to complete the survey.
Other notable data points:
- Hourly wage rates may have moderated but data issues could be in play. Anecdotal reports suggest providers cannot name a price high enough to coax people back into the workforce.
- Job openings are at decade high. (See Tom Tobin's work on AMN)
- The SNF industry shows no signs of recovery. The secular trend away from institutional post-acute care toward home health has accelerated and the change appears to be permanent. (AMED, LHCG)
- The diagnostic and preventive care providers (physicians, labs, imaging) are at or near pre-pandemic levels which means the follow-on care like more tests ordered and scripts written should be coming along nicely. (See Tom Tobin's work on GDRX)
- All the money pouring into research and diagnostics continues to push the biotechnology workforce higher. Medtech, with the exception of dental labs are back to pre-pandemic levels. However, demand for devices and supplies is not yet high enough to warrant normal levels of overtime
- Mental health providers may be experiencing the same dynamic as the HHA/SNFs. Outpatient is above pre-pandemic levels while inpatient has not yet recovered (UHS, ACHC, Talkspace)
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Emily Evans
Managing Director – Health Policy
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