NewsWire: 5/5/21
- According to the latest Census update, the U.S. population over the past decade grew at the slowest rate since the 1930s. The slowdown was driven by falling birthrates and declines in immigration. (The New York Times)
- NH: Last week, Census released its decennial population numbers. The results: From 2010 to 2020, the US population increased by +7.4% to 331.5M people. That marks the weakest rate of increase since the 1930s.
- The biggest winners were the South and the West. Both regions grew by +7%. Utah experienced the largest population growth of any state, at +18.4%. Idaho and Texas were not far behind, rising +17.3% and +15.9%. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregan all gained one electoral seat. Texas gained two.
- The only notable exception to the West’s strong growth was California. The state grew by only +6.1% and lost one congressional seat for the first time ever.
- The biggest losers were the Northeast and the Midwest. Both regions declined by -7%. West Virginia had the largest state population decline, falling by -3.2%. And Illinois’ population declined by -0.1%. Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia all lost one congressional seat.
- These results aren’t a surprise. Last Thursday, we presented our 2020 Demography Review of the United States. Using the Current Population Survey, we found that since 2000 the population growth rate has been much higher in the South and West than in the Northeast and Midwest. New York and Illinois’ population growth even turned negative for the last few years. These decennial Census results simply confirm trends that demographers have been observing for many years.
- So which party gains an advantage from reapportionment? If you look at the gains and losses in states where partisan dominance is clear, Republicans picked up an additional three seats. But because every state will be redistricting over the next year, it will come down to which party controls the process in each state. In many states, that will be unclear as redistricting will be conducted by either a nonpartisan commission or a divided state government. But in states where it's evident which party will control the process, Republicans have an advantage. According to 538, the GOP will control redistricting in 20 states, while the Democrats will have control in only 8.
- Census will release its next batch of data, which will be focused on demographic factors like race and age, in mid-August. I’ll be sure to keep you updated when the results arrive.
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