Expectations for 1Q21
Our claims index volume for NTRA looks strong heading into 1Q21. On the surface, total volume is up 26% sequentially. Signatera, or claims volume that caries a diagnosis code for cancer, primarily for colon and rectal cancer, is increasing rapidly, up 44% 1Q21 vs 4Q20. Signatera volume is still a small percentage of total, however, and the bulk of the increase in the claims index is driven by the pregnancy an hereditary testing codes.
Consensus estimates are looking for +2% sequential revenue growth, from $112M to $114M for 1Q21. The company has guided to $500M - $525M for 2021 and characterized the year as weighted to second half. At the low end, our 1Q21 estimate is $130M even with several conservative haircuts to our assumptions. Revenue guidance for 2021 should be heading into a range of $525-$550M for 2021 if our assumptions are correct, and higher still depending on commentary on the call. We expect the upside in 1Q21 will flow through to 2022 estimates as the drivers look durable; the adoption of average risk NIPT and Signatera in MRD for colon and other cancers.
As we discussed in our Best Ideas Presentation back in December 2020, we expect shares to trade between $130-$150 this year.
Proprietary Claims Data
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any inquiries.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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