Overview
Many SPACs have lost their luster over the past few weeks, and health care SPACs have traded particularly poorly post-business combination. We think FAII is worth a look at its current price point given that it is a real, profitable business with defined growth prospects and a favorable risk/reward setup. From our seat, we see multiple drivers of upside in 2022 and through to 2025 given the evidence of deferral of care and deterioration of patients as they put off seeking medical care. In the model, we expend a recovery to trend plus additional expansion and note that the company's forecast appears low relative to drivers we see within Health Care broadly and physical therapy, specifically. With these factors in mind, we can model out an upside scenario of $34 per share.
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Call Replay | Fortress Value Acquisition Corp II (FAII) | Best Idea Long Healthcare Subscribers: CLICK HERE for presentation materials and video & audio replays. |
Topic Timestamps and key slides
Presentation
Introduction (0:00 to 2:30)
FAII Write-up (2:31 to 6:14)
Company Overview (6:15 to 7:26)
ATI Locations & Metrics vs. USPH (7:27 to 10:58)
*Key Slide: 12* National Footprint | ATI versus USPH
ATI Thesis (10:59 to 14:15)
*Key Slide: 15* ATI Thesis
M&A and the Path to 29% Margins (14:16 to 19:32)
Referral Network, PT Visits, Impact of COVID-19 (19:33 to 26:10)
COVID Vaccinations & Return to Care (26:11 to 30:01)
*Key Slide: 28* COVID-19 | An Increasing Willingness to Return to the Doctor
Labor Data Matter (30:02 to 37:16)
Earnings Commentary & Google Trends - PT (37:17 to 3950)
*Key Slide: 43* Recovery to Trend+ is Underway
USPH Forecast Algorithm (39:51 to 41:29)
*Key Slide: 47* USPH | Patient Growth Algo Forecast
Management Call & Field Checks (41:30 to 45:59)
Valuation & Risks (46:00 to 50:34)
*Key Slide: 53* COVID-19 Cost ~3M Deferred/Lost Patient Visits
*Key Slide: 54* Upside Scenario, The Path to $34
*Key Slide: 55* Risks to Thesis
Summary (50:35 to 52:07)
Live Q&A
Operating Leverage, JYNT, De-SPAC Trends. etc. (53:08 to 1:08:06)
Closing (1:08:07 to 1:09:19)
Key Slides from the Presentation
All data available upon request. Please reach out to with any inquiries.
Thomas Tobin
Managing Director
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