Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
On the greenest of Irish Greenlights today, the most important OODA Loop observation in my notebook is this: BIG HIGHER-LOWS and new HIGHER-Cycle-HIGHS for Oil, UST 10yr Yield, and the Russell 2000 (IWM).
Why? A: #Quad2. Mr. Market is exceptionally good at discounting the future. Yesterday’s “disappointing economic data” sets the table for way “better than expected” data in March (reported in April).
Why? A: Base Effects. US Retail Sales was just reported at +6.3% year-over-year growth for FEB vs. a +4.7% comp in FEB of 2020. The comps (base effects) for March and April of 2020 collapse to -5.6% and -19.9%, year-over-year, respectively.
Whether it’s the “why” and/or The Signal that you choose to care about, that’s completely up to you. Or, as the Irish like to say, “never scald your lips with another man’s porridge.”