Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
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There’s everyone on Wall Street telling you should have known, then there’s everyone on Main Street tweeting at you. Since we Masters of the Hedge Fund Universe are sooo much smarter than The People, the 2nd part of everyone is really getting to people. But there’s no crying in long/short stock picking… So let’s be better than this and stop whining about Maxi Avatars and Wall Street Bets. The Game is changing – it always does - and only those of us who are willing to embrace the uncertainty of change are going to get it right next. Hindsight Bias: “the tendency to believe an event, after it occurs, was predictable or inevitable.” -How To Decide, pg 29 In hindsight, the Economic Quads are predictable. That’s why we use PREDICTIVE tracking algos to predict them. In hindsight, the back-tested returns, by Asset Class, Sector Style, and Factor Exposure are what they are too – history. |
