Based on Upper Upscale RevPAR coming in at 10%, August represented a sequential slowdown in seasonally adjusted absolute RevPAR from July.
As we discussed in our 08/10/10 note “DOLLAR REVPAR MORE RELEVANT THAN %,” to keep pace with July, August need to generate RevPAR of roughly $100. Actual August YoY RevPAR growth came in at +10% which, on the surface, appears stronger than July’s 7.8% increase. However, on an absolute basis, adjusted for seasonality, August growth need to be at least 14% to match July’s performance. In our opinion, RevPAR is actually on a declining pace sequentially which gives credence to our Pent Up Demand thesis espoused in our 08/17/10 note “PENT UP DEMAND THEORY.”
The good news is that September needs only to grow RevPAR 8% to match August’s performance versus 12% to match July. The bad news is that if this new level of absolute RevPAR continues, 2011 RevPAR could fall below the Street’s estimate.