Below is a chart and brief excerpt from today's Early Look written by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.
In US Equity Sector Style terms, it was very much a #Quad4 week:A) Energy (XLE) and Financials (XLF) were down -1.9% and -1.0% on the week, respectively (both are #Quad4 Shorts)
B) Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Staples (XLP) were up +0.8% and +0.7% last week (both are #Quad4 Longs)
Utilities (XLU) are interesting because they work during both #Quad3 Stagflation and #Quad4 Deflation. That’s probably why they’re the best US Equity Sector to be long of here so far in Q4 at +7.8% for OCT to-date.
The big question for both Utes (and Gold), from here, is whether the Fed’s largest bond buying week since May is going to cap US Treasury Yields around 0.81-0.82% (i.e. the top-end of my Hedgeye Risk Range). If they don’t, the MOVE (treasury vol) is going to move!