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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP

As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or 0.3% (1,080) downside and 1.2% (1,097) upside.  Equity futures are trading below fair value in an erratic morning; there was early strength on the back of strong Q2 German GDP but that has since given way MACRO economic concerns - July CPI and Retail Sales will be in the spotlight today.  Headline CPI is estimated to have increased by +0.2% m/m, and Retail sales to have risen +0.5% m/m.

  • ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -436 (+1854) Breadth positive on a down day!
  • VOLUME: NYSE - 1007.39 (-13.48%) - Summer volume for sure!
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Two sectors positive - XLB and XLV
  • MARKET LEADING/LAGGING STOCKS: Office Depot +4.46%, Motorola +4.16 and Cisco -9.38% and Netapp -8.67%

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • VIX - 25.73 1.34% - The VIX now up for 4 days and bearish for equities.
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO - 2.98 up from 1.64 surging yesterday (low on 07/15/10 of 0.87)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 22.54 -0.382 (-1.669%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .15% Unchanged
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.1661 to 2.2061 (close)  - Now at 2.1786 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 268.91 +0.03% (first up day this week)
  • Oil: 75.74 -2.92%
  • COPPER: 330.55 +0.92% (currently trading at 322 - BEARISH for growth expectations)
  • GOLD: 1,213 +1.38% (safe haven status returning?)

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.2849 -0.28% - (trading down every day this week)
  • DOLLAR: 82.635 +0.42%) - (trading up every day this week)

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

  • ASIA - Closed on a stronger note.  Japan closed modestly higher on the day, but closed 4% lower on the week.  China's Shanghai index closed up 1.2% (down 1.94%on the week), as property shares reversed earlier losses triggered after a central bank statement showed a steep drop in new mortgage loans in Shanghai.
  • EUROPE - Markets are trading back below breakeven after a slightly disappointing Italian bond auction offset earlier strength generated by a robust Q2 GDP reading from Germany.  
  • EASTERN EUROPE - Trading mixed to lower - Russia down for the fourth day; Latvia up 1.80%.
  • LATIN AMERICA - Trading higher Peru, Argentina and Brazil and up small.
  • MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA - Trading mixed.

Howard Penney

Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends 813

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER