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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP


As we look at today’s set up for the S&P 500, the range is 21 points or 1.3% (1,113) downside and 0.9% (1,138) upside.

Equity futures are trading below fair value with today's FOMC meeting the key focus. The FOMC plans to release a statement at 2:15 p.m. today and, in my view, it’s unlikely that Chairman Bernanke will be able to string together the right words to satisfy the market. 

ADVANCE/DECLINE LINE: -1366 (+1599)

  • VOLUME: NYSE - 790.073 (-16.5%)
  • SECTOR PERFORMANCE: Every sector positive yesterday - XLY, XLK and XLB leading the way
  • MARKET LEADING/LOOSING STOCKS: CARMAX +4.95, King Pharma +4.44 and Hewlett-Packard (7.99%) and Tyson Foods (4.9%)

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

  • VIX 22.14 1.84%- The VIX is broken on TRADE, but bearish for equities.
  • SPX PUT/CALL RATIO - 2.01 up from 1.74 (low on 07/15/10 of 0.87)

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • TED SPREAD - 25.99 -0.759 (-2.837%)
  •  3-MONTH T-BILL YIELD .14%, unchanged
  • YIELD CURVE - 2.3088 to 2.2974

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION:

  • CRB: 274.59 -0.04%
  • Oil: 81.48 0.97% (first up day in 3)
  • COPPER: 335.30 0.33% (currently trading at 328 below 332 - BEARISH for growth expectations
  • GOLD: 1,200 -0.37% (trading down for 2 days)

CURRENCIES:

  • EURO: 1.3228 -0.39%  - (trading down for 2 days)
  • DOLLAR: 80.711 +0.38%) - (trading up for two days)

OVERSEAS MARKETS:

  • ASIA - Major indices closed weaker in response to a sharp fall seen in China in response to bearish economic data. Banking stocks were among the leading decliners, while energy stocks were also weighing on markets.  
  • EUROPE - European markets are range bound at lower levels with investors largely sidelined ahead of today's FOMC meeting. Mining, Financials and export orientated names are weighing on the indices.
  • EASTERN EUROPE - Trading lower - Russia down 1.86% and Hungary down 1.76%.
  • LATIN AMERICA - Mixed Peru and Chilie trading higher
  • MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA - Mostly lower with Nigeria leading the way…

Howard Penney

Managing Director

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - levels and trends

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - S P

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - VIX

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - DOLLAR

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - OIL

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - GOLD

 

THE DAILY OUTLOOK - COPPER